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Market Inefficiency, Insurance Mandate and Welfare: U.S. Health Care Reform 2010

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Author Info

  • Juergen Jung

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Towson University)

  • Chung Tran

    ()
    (School of Economics, University of New South Wales)

Abstract

In this paper we develop a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations (OLG) model with endogenous health capital to study the macroeconomic effects of the Affordable Care Act of March 2010 also known as the Obama health care reform. We find that the insurance mandate enforced with fines and premium subsidies successfully reduces adverse selection in private health insurance markets and subsequently leads to almost universal coverage of the working age population. On other hand, spending on health care services increases by almost 6 percent due to moral hazard of the newly insured. Notably, this increase in health spending is partly financed by the larger pool of insured individuals and by government spending. In order to finance the subsidies the government needs to either introduce a 2.7 percent payroll tax on individuals with incomes over $200,000, increase the consumption tax rate by about 1.1 percent, or cut government spending about 1 percent of GDP. A stable outcome across all simulated policies is that the reform triggers increases in health capital, decreases in labor supply, and decreases in the capital stock due to crowding out effects and tax distortions. As a consequence steady state output decreases by up to 2 percent. Overall, we find that the reform is socially beneficial as welfare gains are observed for most generations along the transition path to the new long run equilibrium.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics, The University of New South Wales in its series Discussion Papers with number 2010-31.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2010-31

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Keywords: Affordable Care Act 2010; Endogenous Health Capital; Life-Cycle Health Spending and Financing; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Maria Prados, 2012. "A Life Cycle Approach to the Mechanism Connecting Health Inequality and Earnings Inequality," 2012 Meeting Papers 1145, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Manan Roy, 2011. "How Well Does the U.S. Government Provide Health Insurance?," Departmental Working Papers 1102, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
  3. Ponpoje Porapakkarm & Svetlana Pashchenko, 2011. "Quantitative Analysis of Health Insurance Reform: Separating Community Rating from Income Redistribution," 2011 Meeting Papers 1254, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Elena Capatina, 2012. "Life Cycle Effects of Health Risk," Working Papers 201216, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
  5. Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, 2013. "Quantitative Analysis of Health Insurance Reform: Separating Regulation from Redistribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 383-404, July.
  6. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2013. "Fiscal Austerity Measures: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Increases," Working Papers 2013-01, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2013.
  7. Pedro Gomis Porqueras & Solmaz Moslehi & Richard M. H. Suen, 2013. "Endogenous Health in a Model of Calories, Medical Services and Health Shocks," Economics Series 2013_4, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  8. Ponpoje (Poe) Porapakkarm & Svetlana Pashchenko, 2013. "Cross-subsidization in employer-based health insurance and the effects of tax subsidy reform," 2013 Meeting Papers 1086, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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