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Market Inefficiency, Insurance Mandate and Welfare: U.S. Health Care Reform 2010

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  • Juergen Jung

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Towson University)

  • Chung Tran

    ()
    (Research School of Economics, The Australian National University)

Abstract

We quantify the effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) using a stochastic general equilibrium overlapping generations model with endogenous health capital accumulation calibrated to match U.S. data on health spending and insurance take-up rates. We find that the introduction of an insurance mandate and the expansion of Medicaid which are at the core of the ACA increase the insurance take-up rate of workers to almost universal coverage but decrease capital accumulation, labor supply and aggregate output. The penalties and subsidies do reduce the adverse selection problem in private health insurance markets and do counteract the crowding-out effect of the Medicaid expansion. The redistributional measures embedded in the ACA result in welfare gains of low income individuals in poor health, and conversely, in welfare losses of high income individuals in good health. The overall welfare effect depends on the size of the ex-post moral hazard effect and general equilibrium price adjustments.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Towson University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2014-01.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2014
Date of revision: Sep 2014
Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2014-01

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Postal: Towson, Maryland 21252-0001
Phone: 410-704-2959
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Web page: http://www.towson.edu/cbe/economics/
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Keywords: Affordable Care Act 2010; insurance mandate; Medicaid; endogenous health capital; life-cycle health spending and financing; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; Grossman health capital.;

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Cited by:
  1. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2012. "Fiscal Austerity Measures: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Increases," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-594, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  2. Harold L. Cole & Soojin Kim & Dirk Krueger, 2012. "Analyzing the Effects of Insuring Health Risks: On the Trade-off between Short Run Insurance Benefits vs. Long Run Incentive Costs," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-047, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Pashchenko, Svetlana & Porapakkarm, Ponpoje, 2012. "Quantitative analysis of health insurance reform: separating regulation from redistribution," MPRA Paper 41193, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Elena Capatina, 2012. "Life Cycle Effects of Health Risk," Working Papers 201216, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
  5. Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, 2012. "Online Appendix to "Quantitative Analysis of Health Insurance Reform: Separating Regulation from Redistribution"," Technical Appendices 11-70, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  6. Manan Roy, 2011. "How Well Does the U.S. Government Provide Health Insurance?," Departmental Working Papers 1102, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
  7. Pashchenko, Svetlana & Porapakkarm, Ponpoje, 2010. "Quantitative Analysis of Health Insurance Reform: Separating Community Rating from Income Redistribution," MPRA Paper 26158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Maria Prados, 2012. "A Life Cycle Approach to the Mechanism Connecting Health Inequality and Earnings Inequality," 2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 1145, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Pedro Gomis Porqueras & Solmaz Moslehi & Richard M. H. Suen, 2013. "Endogenous Health in a Model of Calories, Medical Services and Health Shocks," Economics Series 2013_4, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  10. Pashchenko, Svetlana & Porapakkarm, Ponpoje, 2013. "Cross-subsidization in employer-based health insurance and the effects of tax subsidy reform," MPRA Paper 48054, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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