Individual Subjective Survival Curves
AbstractTesting life-cycle models and other economic models of saving and consumption at micro level requires knowledge of individuals' subjective believes of their mortality risk. Previous studies have shown that individual responses on subjective survival probabilities are generally consistent with life tables. However, survey responses suffer serious problems caused by focal responses of zero and one. This paper suggests using a Bayesian update model that accounts for the problems encountered in focal responses. We also propose models that help us to identify how much each individual deviates from life table in her subjective belief. The resulting individual subjective survival curves have considerable variations and are readily applicable in testing economic models that require individual subjective life expectancies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9480.
Date of creation: Feb 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Li Gan, Michael D. Hurd, Daniel L. McFadden. "Individual Subjective Survival Curves," in David A. Wise, editor, "Analyses in the Economics of Aging" University of Chicago Press (2005)
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Other versions of this item:
- C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-02-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-HEA-2003-02-03 (Health Economics)
- NEP-IAS-2003-02-03 (Insurance Economics)
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