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Individual Subjective Survival Curves

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Author Info
Li Gan
Michael Hurd
Daniel McFadden

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Abstract

Testing life-cycle models and other economic models of saving and consumption at micro level requires knowledge of individuals' subjective believes of their mortality risk. Previous studies have shown that individual responses on subjective survival probabilities are generally consistent with life tables. However, survey responses suffer serious problems caused by focal responses of zero and one. This paper suggests using a Bayesian update model that accounts for the problems encountered in focal responses. We also propose models that help us to identify how much each individual deviates from life table in her subjective belief. The resulting individual subjective survival curves have considerable variations and are readily applicable in testing economic models that require individual subjective life expectancies.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9480.

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Date of creation: Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9480

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C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Microeconomic Data

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Glenn R. Hubbard & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, . "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  2. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Manski, Charles F., 1993. "Dynamic choice in social settings : Learning from the experiences of others," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 121-136, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1993. "Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS," NBER Working Papers 4560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1985. "Expectations, Life Expectancy, and Economic Behavior," NBER Working Papers 0835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2006. "Differential Mortality, Uncertain Medical Expenses, and the Saving of Elderly Singles," NBER Working Papers 12554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Sanchez-Romero, Miguel, 2005. "“Welfare Gains and Annuities Demand”," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2005/02, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History). [Downloadable!]
  3. Owen O'Donnell & Federica Teppa & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2008. "Can subjective survival expectations explain retirement behaviour?," DNB Working Papers 188, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Li Gan & Tarun Sabarwal, 2005. "A Simple Test of Adverse Events and Strategic Timing Theories of Consumer Bankruptcy," NBER Working Papers 11763, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Joan Costa Font, 2007. "Biased Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age," Working Papers in Economics 174, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Amy Finkelstein & Kathleen McGarry, 2003. "Private Information and its Effect on Market Equilibrium: New Evidence from Long-Term Care Insurance," NBER Working Papers 9957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Maria G. Perozek, 2005. "Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: do survey respondents know something we don't know?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Amy Finkelstein & Kathleen McGarry, 2006. "Multiple Dimensions of Private Information: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 938-958, September. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pierre-Carl Michaud & Arthur van Soest, 2007. "How Did the Elimination of the Earnings Test above the Normal Retirement Age Affect Retirement Expectations?," IZA Discussion Papers 2868, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. David Demery & Nigel Duck, 2006. "Savings–age profiles in the UK," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 521-541, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ahmed Khwaja & Frank Sloan & Sukyung Chung, 2007. "The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 179-201, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Martin Salm, 2006. "Can Subjective Mortality Expectations and Stated Preferences Explain Varying Consumption and Saving Behaviors among the Elderly?," IZA Discussion Papers 2467, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Guan Gong & Anthony Webb, 2006. "Mortality Heterogeneity and The Distributional Consequences of Mandatory Annuitization," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2006-11, Center for Retirement Research, revised Jun 2006. [Downloadable!]
  14. Juergen Jung, 2008. "Subjective Health Expectations," Caepr Working Papers 2008-016, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
  15. Li Gan & Guan Gong & Michael Hurd & Daniel McFadden, 2004. "Subjective Mortality Risk and Bequests," NBER Working Papers 10789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2007. "A Parsimonious Model of Subjective Life Expectancy," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Li Gan & Guan Gong & Michael Hurd, 2006. "Net Intergenerational Transfers from an Increase in Social Security Benefits," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_482, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  18. Irena Dushi & Anthony Webb, 2004. "Annuitization: Keeping Your Options Open," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-04, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  19. Adeline Delavande & Robert Willis, 2007. "Managing the Risk of Life," Working Papers wp167, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  20. Daniel McFadden & Albert Bemmaor & Francis Caro & Jeff Dominitz & Byung-Hill Jun & Arthur Lewbel & Rosa Matzkin & Francesca Molinari & Norbert Schwarz & Robert Willis & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 183-196, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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