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The effects of health, wealth, and wages on labor supply and retirement behavior

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Author Info
Eric French
Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of wages and the Social Security System on labor supply over the life cycle. I present a model of labor supply and retirement behavior that includes a saving decision, uncertainty, and a non-negativity constraint on assets. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate life cycle profiles for labor force participation rates, hours worked, and assets. Using the Method of Simulated Moments, I match the estimated profiles to profiles simulated by a dynamic structural model. Estimated parameters produce simulated profiles that match many aspects of the estimated profiles, including the high job exit rates at ages 62 and 65. Simulations suggest that a 20% reduction in Social Security benefits would cause individuals to delay job exit from the labor market in order to develop sufficient financial assets, increasing labor force participation rates from 28% to 35 % at age 62.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-00-2.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-00-2

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Keywords: Social security ; Labor supply ; Retirement ; Wealth;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Rust & Christopher Phelan, 1997. "How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 781-832, July.
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  2. Domeij, David & Floden, Martin, 2001. "The labor-supply elasticity and borrowing constraints: Why estimates are biased," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 480, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kahn, James A., 1988. "Social security, liquidity, and early retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 97-117, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Altonji, Joseph G, 1986. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages S176-S215, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Burtless, Gary, 1986. "Social Security, Unanticipated Benefit Increases, and the Timing of Retirement," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 781-805, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Farber, Henry S & Gibbons, Robert, 1996. "Learning and Wage Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1007-47, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Janet Currie & Brigitte C. Madrian, 1998. "Health, Health Insurance and the Labor Market," JCPR Working Papers 27, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
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  8. Browning, Martin & Deaton, Angus & Irish, Margaret, 1985. "A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 503-43, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-55, March-Apr. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Juster, F. Thomas & Smith, James P. & Stafford, Frank, 1999. "The measurement and structure of household wealth," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 253-275, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Heckman, James J, 1976. "A Life-Cycle Model of Earnings, Learning, and Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages S11-44, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1986. "A Structural Retirement Model," NBER Working Papers 1237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1121-57, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Palumbo, Michael G, 1999. "Uncertain Medical Expenses and Precautionary Saving Near the End of the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(2), pages 395-421, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-52, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. MaCurdy, Thomas E, 1981. "An Empirical Model of Labor Supply in a Life-Cycle Setting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1059-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Alan L. Gustman & Olivia S. Mitchell & Andrew A. Samwick & Thomas L. Steinmeier, . "Evaluating Pension Entitlements," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-20, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
  18. Gustman, Alan L & Steinmeier, Thomas L, 1986. "A Structural Retirement Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 555-84, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Heckman, James J & Macurdy, Thomas E, 1980. "A Life Cycle Model of Female Labour Supply," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 47-74, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Sabelhaus, 1996. "Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S. Saving: A Cohort Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. David Card, 1990. "Intertemporal Labor Supply: An Assessment," Working Papers 649, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Blau, David M, 1994. "Labor Force Dynamics of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 117-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Hugo Benitez-Silva, 2000. "A Dynamic Model Of Labor Supply, Consumption/Saving, And Annuity Decisions Under Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 128, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  24. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Banks, James & Blundell, Richard & Tanner, Sarah, 1998. "Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 769-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Christopher D Carroll, 1990. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive 371, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Aug 1996.
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  27. Orazio P. Attanasio & James Banks & Costas Meghir & Guglielmo Weber, 1995. "Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption," NBER Working Papers 5350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Abowd, John M & Card, David, 1989. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 411-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Cogan, John F, 1981. "Fixed Costs and Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 945-63, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Krueger, Alan B & Pischke, Jorn-Steffen, 1992. "The Effect of Social Security on Labor Supply: A Cohort Analysis of the Notch Generation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(4), pages 412-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. Hugo Benitez-Silva, 2000. "A Dynamic Model of Labor Supply, Consumption/Saving, and Annuity Decisions under Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers 00-06, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  35. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 1999. "Effects of pensions on savings: analysis with data from the health and retirement study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 271-324, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John Bound & Todd Stinebrickner & Timothy Waidman, 2004. "Using a Structural Retirement Model to Simulate the Effect of Changes to the OASDI and Medicare Programs," Working Papers wp091, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hugo Benítez-Silva, 2003. "Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers wp056, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hugo Benitez-Silva, 2000. "A Dynamic Model Of Labor Supply, Consumption/Saving, And Annuity Decisions Under Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 128, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ing-Haw Cheng & Eric French, 2000. "The effect of the run-up in the stock market on labor supply," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 48-65. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hugo Benitez-Silva, 2002. "Job Search Behavior At The End Of The Life Cycle," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2002-10, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hugo Benitez-Silva, 2001. "A Dynamic Model of Job Search Behavior over the Life Cycle with Empirical Applications," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 100, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Héctor Chade & Gustavo Ventura, 2001. "Taxes and Marriage: A Two-Sided Search Analysis," Working Papers 36, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Aug 2001. [Downloadable!]
  8. repec:bep:macadv:v:1:y:2001:i:advances/1/1:p:1003-1003 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Carl Emmerson & Howard Reed & Andrew Shephard, 2004. "An assessment of PenSim2," IFS Working Papers W04/21, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hector Chade & Gustavo Ventura, . "Taxes and Marriage: A Two-Sided Search Analysis," Working Papers 2132862, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Hugo Benitez-Silva, 2000. "A Dynamic Model of Labor Supply, Consumption/Saving, and Annuity Decisions under Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers 00-06, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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