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Subjective Health Expectations

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Author Info
Juergen Jung () (Indiana University Bloomington)

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Abstract

In this paper, I derive subjective health expectations curves using the RAND-HRS data. These curves can be used in the estimation of structural life-cycle models. I first construct "health tables" from the RAND-HRS data and update subjective health expectations with information from these tables. The Bayesian updating mechanism corrects for focal point responses and reporting errors of the original health expectations variable. In addition, I test the quality of the health expectations measure and describe its correlation with various health indicators and other individual characteristics. I find that subjective health expectations do contain additional information that is not incorporated in subjective mortality expectations and that the rational expectations assumption cannot be rejected for subjective health expectations.

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File URL: http://www.iub.edu/~caepr/RePEc/PDF/2008/CAEPR2008-016.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington in its series Caepr Working Papers with number 2008-016.

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Length: 71 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2008-016

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Related research
Keywords: Subjective Health Expectations; Health Expectations; Bayesian Updating of Expectations;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2008. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata, 2nd Edition," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number saus. [Downloadable!]
  2. V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor Jr. & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2007. "A Parsimonious Model of Subjective Life Expectancy," MEA discussion paper series 07154, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Li Gan & Michael Hurd & Daniel McFadden, 2003. "Individual Subjective Survival Curves," NBER Working Papers 9480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Todd Elder, 2007. "Subjective Survival Probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study: Systematic Biases and Predictive Validity," Working Papers wp159, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  6. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas J. Muench, 2003. "Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited," Working Papers wp059, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-17.

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