Market Inefficiency, Insurance Mandate and Welfare: U.S. Health Care Reform 2010
Abstract
In this paper we develop a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations (OLG) model with endogenous health capital to study the macroeconomic effects of the Affordable Care Act of March 2010 also known as the Obama health care reform. We find that the insurance mandate enforced with fines and premium subsidies successfully reduces adverse selection in private health insurance markets and subsequently leads to almost universal coverage of the working age population. On other hand, spending on health care services increases by almost 6 percent due to moral hazard of the newly insured. Notably, this increase in health spending is partly financed by the larger pool of insured individuals and by government spending. In order to finance the subsidies the government needs to either introduce a 2.7 percent payroll tax on individuals with incomes over $200, 000, increase the consumption tax rate by about 1.1 percent, or cut government spending about 1 percent of GDP. A stable outcome across all simulated policies is that the reform triggers increases in health capital, decreases in labor supply, and decreases in the capital stock due to crowding out effects and tax distortions. As a consequence steady state output decreases by up to 2 percent. Overall, we find that the reform is socially beneficial as welfare gains are observed for most generations along the transition path to the new long-run equilibrium.Download Info
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Paper provided by Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics in its series ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics with number 2011-539.Length: 48 Pages
Date of creation: Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2011-539
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- Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2010. "Market Inefficiency, Insurance Mandate and Welfare: U.S. Health Care Reform 2010," Discussion Papers 2010-31, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2011. "Market Inefficiency, Insurance Mandate and Welfare: U.S. Health Care Reform 2010," Working Papers 201102, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
- H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
- I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
- I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-05-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2011-05-30 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-HEA-2011-05-30 (Health Economics)
- NEP-IAS-2011-05-30 (Insurance Economics)
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Elena Capatina, 2012. "Life Cycle Effects of Health Risk," Working Papers 201216, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
- Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2013.
"Fiscal Austerity Measures: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Increases,"
Working Papers
2013-01, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2013.
- Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2012. "Fiscal Austerity Measures: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Increases," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-594, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- Manan Roy, 2011. "How Well Does the U.S. Government Provide Health Insurance?," Departmental Working Papers 1102, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
- Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, 2012.
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Technical Appendices
11-70, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, . "Quantitative Analysis of Health Insurance Reform: Separating Regulation from Redistribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Pashchenko, Svetlana & Porapakkarm, Ponpoje, 2012.
"Quantitative analysis of health insurance reform: separating regulation from redistribution,"
MPRA Paper
41193, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, . "Quantitative Analysis of Health Insurance Reform: Separating Regulation from Redistribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ponpoje Porapakkarm & Svetlana Pashchenko, 2011.
"Quantitative Analysis of Health Insurance Reform: Separating Community Rating from Income Redistribution,"
2011 Meeting Papers
1254, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Pashchenko, Svetlana & Porapakkarm, Ponpoje, 2010. "Quantitative Analysis of Health Insurance Reform: Separating Community Rating from Income Redistribution," MPRA Paper 26158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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