Accounting for the Rise of Health Spending and Longevity
AbstractWe estimate a stochastic life-cycle model of endogenous health spending, asset accumulation and retirement to investigate the causes behind the increase in health spending and longevity in the U.S. over the period 1965-2005. We estimate that technological change and the increase in the generosity of health insurance on their own may explain 36% of the rise in health spending (technology 30% and insurance 6%), while income explains only 4% and other health trends 0.5%. By simultaneously occurring over this period, these changes may have led to complementarity effects which we find to explain an additional 57% increase in health spending. The estimates suggest that the elasticity of health spending with respect to changes in both income and insurance is larger with co-occurring improvements in technology. Technological change, taking the form of increased health care productivity at an annual rate of 1.3%, explains almost all of the rise in life expectancy at age 25 over this period, while changes in insurance and income together explain less than 10%. Welfare gains are substantial and most of the gain appears to be due to technological change.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 7622.
Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Raquel Fonseca & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Arie Kapteyn & Titus Galama, 2013. "Accounting for the Rise of Health Spending and Longevity," Cahiers de recherche 1326, CIRPEE.
- I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
- I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
- J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2013-10-05 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2013-10-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEM-2013-10-05 (Demographic Economics)
- NEP-DGE-2013-10-05 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
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