Current and Future Prevalence of Obesity and Severe Obesity in the United States
AbstractThis study examines past patterns and projects future prevalence rates of obesity and severe obesity among US adults. Trends in body mass index (BMI), overweight (BMI?25), obesity (BMI?30), class 2 obesity (BMI?35), class 3 obesity (BMI?40) and class 4 obesity (BMI?45) of 20-74 year olds are obtained using data from the first National Health Examination Survey and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Quantile regression methods are then used to forecast future prevalence rates through 2020. By that year, 77.6% of men are predicted to be overweight and 40.2% obese, with class 2, 3 and 4 obesity prevalence rates projected at 16.4%, 6.3% and 3.1%. The corresponding forecasts for women are 71.1%, 43.3%, 25.3%, 12.8% and 5.6%. The large growth predicted for severe obesity represents a major public health challenge, given the accompanying high medical expenditures and elevated risk of mortality and morbidity. Combating severe obesity is likely to require strategies targeting the particularly large weight gains of the heaviest individuals.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Gruyter in its journal Forum for Health Economics & Policy.
Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.degruyter.com
Other versions of this item:
- Christopher J. Ruhm, 2007. "Current and Future Prevalence of Obesity and Severe Obesity in the United States," NBER Working Papers 13181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
- I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Michael Lechner, 2008.
"Long-run labour market effects of individual sports activities,"
University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008
2008-13, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- Michael Lechner, 2008. "Long-Run Labour Market Effects of Individual Sports Activities," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 114, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
- Lechner, Michael, 2008. "Long-Run Labour Market Effects of Individual Sports Activities," IZA Discussion Papers 3559, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Lechner, Michael, 2008. "Long-run Labour Market Effects of Individual Sports Activities," CEPR Discussion Papers 6886, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giorgio Brunello & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Anna Sanz de Galdeano, 2008.
"The Rise in Obesity Across the Atlantic: An Economic Perspective,"
- Giorgio Brunello & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano, 2008. "The Rise in Obesity Across the Atlantic: An Economic Perspective," Working Papers 586, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
- Brunello, Giorgio & Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna, 2008. "The Rise in Obesity across the Atlantic: An Economic Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3529, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Charles L. Baum II & Christopher J. Ruhm, 2007.
"Age, Socioeconomic Status and Obesity Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
13289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alston, Julian M. & Sumner, Daniel A. & Vosti, Stephen A., 2008. "Farm subsidies and obesity in the United States: National evidence and international comparisons," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 470-479, December.
- Costa-Font, J & Fabbri, D & Gil, J, 2008.
"Decomposing Bodymass Index gaps between Mediterranean countries: A Counterfactual Quantile Regression Analysis,"
Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers
08/02, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
- Costa-Font, Joan & Fabbri, Daniele & Gil, Joan, 2009. "Decomposing body mass index gaps between Mediterranean countries: A counterfactual quantile regression analysis," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 351-365, December.
- Joan Costa-Font & Daniele Fabbri & Joan Gil, 2008. "Decomposing Body Mass Index Gaps Between Mediterranean Countries: A Counterfactual Quantile Regression Analysis," Working Papers 2008-11, FEDEA.
- Christopher J. Ruhm, 2010.
"Understanding Overeating and Obesity,"
NBER Working Papers
16149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Etile, Fabrice, 2014. "Education policies and health inequalities: Evidence from changes in the distribution of Body Mass Index in France, 1981–2003," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 46-65.
- Samuel Preston & Andrew Stokes & Neil Mehta & Bochen Cao, 2014. "Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States," Demography, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 27-49, February.
- Rooth, Dan-Olof, 2010. "Work Out or Out of Work: The Labor Market Return to Physical Fitness and Leisure Sport Activities," IZA Discussion Papers 4684, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Pierre-Carl Michaud & Dana Goldman & Darius Lakdawalla & Yuhui Zhen & Adam H. Gailey, 2011.
"The Value of Medican and Pharmaceutical Interventions for Reducing Obesity,"
Cahiers de recherche
- Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Goldman, Dana P. & Lakdawalla, Darius N. & Zheng, Yuhui & Gailey, Adam H., 2012. "The value of medical and pharmaceutical interventions for reducing obesity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 630-643.
- Joan Costa-Font & Daniele Fabbri & Joan Gil, 2008. "Decomposing Cross-Country Gaps in Obesity and Overweight: Does the Social Environment Matter?," Working Papers in Economics 205, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
- Kolosnitsyna, Marina & Berdnikova, Arina, 2009. "Overweight: What Are its Costs and What Could Be Done?," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 15(3), pages 72-93.
- Samuel H. Preston & Andrew Stokes & Neil K. Mehta & Bochen Cao, 2012. "Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States," NBER Working Papers 18407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.