The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival
AbstractAlthough expectations, or more precisely subjective probability distributions, play a prominent role in models of decision making under uncertainty, we have had very little data on them. Based on panel data from the Health and Retirement Study, we study the evolution of subjective survival probabilities and their ability to predict actual mortality. In panel, respondents modify their survival probabilities in response to new information such as the onset of a new disease condition. Subjective survival probabilities predict actual survival: those who survived in the panel reported survival probabilities approximately 50% greater at baseline than those who died. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2002
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 112 (2002)
Issue (Month): 482 (October)
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Other versions of this item:
- Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1997. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival," NBER Working Papers 6193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
- J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
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