Survival expectations, subjective health and smoking: evidence from European countries
AbstractThis work aims to assess risk perception of smokers in reporting survival expectations and subjective health. In particular, the analysis investigates individuals’ perception of smoking effects in the short and long-term and whether they believe that such detrimental effects can be reversed. Data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, which contain a numerical measure of subjective survival probability, are used to estimate a simultaneous recursive system of equations for survival expectation, subjective health and smoking. Endogeneity and unobservable heterogeneity are addressed using a finite mixture model. This approach identifies two types of individuals that differ in level of optimism, risk perception and rationality in addiction. One important result is that for both types past smokers perceive smoking consequences as reversible, with some difference between the short and long-term. We also find evidence of differences among current and past smokers in the way they evaluate the opportunity cost of tobacco consumption.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York in its series Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers with number 11/30.
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: HEDG/HERC, Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
Phone: (0)1904 323776
Fax: (0)1904 323759
Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/res/herc/research/hedg/
More information through EDIRC
survival expectations; subjective health; risk; smoking; EM algorithm;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
- C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
- C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-EUR-2011-11-21 (Microeconomic European Issues)
- NEP-HEA-2011-11-21 (Health Economics)
- NEP-LAB-2011-11-21 (Labour Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Douglas, Stratford & Hariharan, Govind, 1994. "The hazard of starting smoking: Estimates from a split population duration model," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 213-230, July.
- Cawley, John & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2011.
"The Economics of Risky Health Behaviors,"
IZA Discussion Papers
5728, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Athanasios Orphanides & David Zervos, 1992.
"Rational addiction with learning and regret,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
216, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- van Doorslaer, Eddy & Gerdtham, Ulf-G., 2003. "Does inequality in self-assessed health predict inequality in survival by income? Evidence from Swedish data," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 57(9), pages 1621-1629, November.
- Martin Forster & Andrew Jones, 2000.
"The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: duration analysis of British data,"
176chedp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
- Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, 2001. "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: Duration analysis of British data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(3), pages 517-547.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy, 1986.
"A Theory of Rational Addiction,"
University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State
41, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Vincenzo Atella & Francesco Brindisi & Partha Deb & Furio C. Rosati, 2003.
"Determinants of Access to Physician Services in Italy: A Latent Class Seemingly Unrelated Probit Approach,"
CEIS Research Paper
36, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
- Vincenzo Atella & Francesco Brindisi & Partha Deb & Furio C. Rosati, 2004. "Determinants of access to physician services in Italy: a latent class seemingly unrelated probit approach," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(7), pages 657-668.
- Fabrice Etilé & Carine Milcent, 2006.
"Income-related reporting heterogeneity in self-assessed health: evidence from France,"
PSE Working Papers
- Fabrice Etilé & Carine Milcent, 2006. "Income-related reporting heterogeneity in self-assessed health: evidence from France," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 965-981.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994.
"Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations,"
- J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, . "Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1050-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Deb, Partha & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1997. "Demand for Medical Care by the Elderly: A Finite Mixture Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 313-36, May-June.
- F. Thomas Juster, 1966. "Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number just66-2, September.
- Deb, Partha & Trivedi, Pravin K., 2002. "The structure of demand for health care: latent class versus two-part models," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 601-625, July.
- H. M. Shefrin & Richard Thaler, 1977.
"An Economic Theory of Self-Control,"
NBER Working Papers
0208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giucca, P. & Jappelli, T. & Terlizzese, D., 1992.
"Earning Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving,"
161, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Peter Arcidiacono & Holger Sieg & Frank Sloan, 2007.
"Living Rationally Under The Volcano? An Empirical Analysis Of Heavy Drinking And Smoking,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 37-65, 02.
- Peter Arcidiacono & Holger Sieg & Frank Sloan, . "Living Rationally Under the Volcano? An Empirical Analysis of Heavy Drinking and Smoking," GSIA Working Papers 2003-02, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Peter Arcidiacono & Holger Sieg & Frank Sloan, 2001. "Living Rationally Under the Volcano? An Empirical Analysis of Heavy Drinking and Smoking," NBER Working Papers 8602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Franco Peracchi & Valeria Perotti, 2010. "Subjective survival probabilities and life tables: Evidence from Europe," EIEF Working Papers Series 1016, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Nov 2011.
- V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan, 2001.
"Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September.
- Smith, V. Kerry & Taylor, Donald H., Jr. & Sloan, Frank A., 2000. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," Working Papers 00-15, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Silvia Balia & Andrew M. Jones, 2011.
"Catching the habit: a study of inequality of opportunity in smoking‐related mortality,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A,
Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(1), pages 175-194, January.
- Balia S & Jones A.M, 2009. "Catching the habit: a study of inequality of opportunity in smoking-related mortality," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 09/08, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
- Winston, Gordon C., 1980. "Addiction and backsliding : A theory of compulsive consumption," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 295-324, December.
- Carbone, Jared C. & Kverndokk, Snorre & Rogeberg, Ole Jorgen, 2005. "Smoking, health, risk, and perception," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 631-653, July.
- Valerie Lechene & JÃƒÂ©rÃƒÂ³me Adda, 2001. "Smoking and Endogenous Mortality: Does Heterogeneity in Life Expectancy Explain Differences in Smoking Behavior?," Economics Series Working Papers 77, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan & F. Reed Johnson & William H. Desvousges, 2001.
"Do Smokers Respond To Health Shocks?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 675-687, November.
- James P. Smith, 1999. "Healthy Bodies and Thick Wallets: The Dual Relation between Health and Economic Status," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 145-166, Spring.
- Cinzia Di Novi, 2010. "The influence of traffic-related pollution on individuals' life-style: results from the BRFSS," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1318-1344.
- Viscusi, W Kip, 1990. "Do Smokers Underestimate Risks?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1253-69, December.
- Silvia Ferrari & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2004. "Beta Regression for Modelling Rates and Proportions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 799-815.
- Agar Brugiavini & Tullio Jappelli & Guglielmo Weber, 2002. "The Survey on Health, Aging and Wealth," CSEF Working Papers 86, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Rawlings).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.