IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eie/wpaper/1016.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Subjective survival probabilities and life tables: Evidence from Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Franco Peracchi

    (Tor Vergata University and EIEF)

  • Valeria Perotti

    (The World Bank)

Abstract

Understanding the variability of survival probabilities, both between and within cohorts, is important to economists who study life-cycle decisions under uncertainty. In this paper we analyze the subjective probabilities of survival to specific target ages provided by respondents to the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). To evaluate how these probabilities compare with objective data from life tables, and avoid the problems associated with a naive use of period life tables, we construct cohort life tables from the sequence of period life tables available in the Human Mortality Database and use them to compute actuarial probabilities of survival to the same target ages. We find that male subjective survival probabilities are close to the probabilities computed from the cohort life tables, whereas female subjective probabilities are always lower. We also find that subjective survival probabilities are on average higher for more educated people, those whose household income is higher, and those with better health. This evidence suggests that both income and health matter for own assessments of subjective survival.

Suggested Citation

  • Franco Peracchi & Valeria Perotti, 2010. "Subjective survival probabilities and life tables: Evidence from Europe," EIEF Working Papers Series 1016, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Nov 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:eie:wpaper:1016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eief.it/files/2012/09/wp-16-subjective-survival-probabilities-and-life-tables_evidence-from-europe.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September.
    2. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2008. "Planning and Financial Literacy: How Do Women Fare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 413-417, May.
    3. David A. Wise, 1990. "Issues in the Economics of Aging," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wise90-1, May.
    4. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Differential Mortality in Europe and the U.S. Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Working Papers 613, RAND Corporation.
    5. Maria Perozek, 2008. "Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: do survey respondents know something we don’t know?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(1), pages 95-113, February.
    6. Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2005. "The Relationship Between Education and Adult Mortality in the United States," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(1), pages 189-221.
    7. Franco Peracchi & Claudio Rossetti, 2009. "Gender and regional differences in self-rated health in Europe," CEIS Research Paper 142, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 30 Sep 2009.
    8. Agar Brugiavini & Tullio Jappelli & Guglielmo Weber, 2002. "The Survey on Health, Aging and Wealth," CSEF Working Papers 86, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    9. J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, "undated". "Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1050-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    10. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1990. "How Do the Elderly Form Expectations? An Analysis of Responses to New Information," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in the Economics of Aging, pages 259-286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Kevin Dowd & Andrew Cairns & David Blake & Guy Coughlan & David Epstein & Marwa Khalaf-Allah, 2010. "Backtesting Stochastic Mortality Models," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 281-298.
    12. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2008. "A Parsimonious Choquet Model of Subjective Life Expectancy," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2008-20, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2008.
    13. S. Balia, 2007. "Reporting expected longevity and smoking: evidence from the SHARE," Working Paper CRENoS 200705, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    14. repec:crr:issbrf:ib2007-7-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2010. "Rounding Probabilistic Expectations in Surveys," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 219-231.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Zimper & Alexander Ludwig & Max Groneck, 2012. "A Life-Cycle Consumption Model with Ambiguous Survival Beliefs," 2012 Meeting Papers 693, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. BOUCKAERT, Nicolas & SCHOKKAERT, Erik, 2013. "Differing types of medical prevention appeal to different individuals," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013038, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    3. Olivera, Javier, 2019. "The distribution of pension wealth in Europe," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 30-42.
    4. Grevenbrock, Nils & Groneck, Max & Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2015. "Biased Survival Beliefs, Psychological and Cognitive Explanations, and the Demand for Life Insurances," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113203, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. L. Bissonnette & J. de Bresser, 2018. "Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 505-515, July.
    6. Nils Grevenbrock & Max Groneck & Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2021. "Cognition, Optimism, And The Formation Of Age‐Dependent Survival Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 887-918, May.
    7. Groneck, Max & Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2013. "Ambiguous Survival Beliefs and Hyperbolic Discounting in a Life-Cycle Model," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79878, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Groneck, Max & Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2016. "A life-cycle model with ambiguous survival beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 137-180.
    9. S. Balia, 2011. "Survival expectations, subjective health and smoking: evidence from European countries," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 11/30, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    10. Vesile Kutlu-Koc & Adriaan Kalwij, 2017. "Individual Survival Expectations and Actual Mortality: Evidence from Dutch Survey and Administrative Data," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, October.
    11. Apostolos Papachristos & Georgia Verropoulou & George Ploubidis & Cleon Tsimbos, 2020. "Factors incorporated into future survival estimation among Europeans," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(2), pages 15-56.
    12. Brigitte Dormont & Anne-Laure Samson & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Luchini & Erik Schokkaert, 2018. "Individual Uncertainty About Longevity," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1829-1854, October.
    13. Ludwig, Alexander & Groneck, Max & Zimper, Alexander, 2021. "Who Saves More, the Naive or the Sophisticated Agent?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16412, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Silvia Balia, 2014. "Survival expectations, subjective health and smoking: evidence from SHARE," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 753-780, September.
    15. Frank Cowell & Brian Nolan & Javier Olivera & Philippe Van Kerm, 2017. "Wealth, Top Incomes and Inequality," LWS Working papers 24, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    16. Kent Adsbøll Wickstrøm & Kim Klyver & Maryam Cheraghi-Madsen, 2022. "Age effect on entry to entrepreneurship: embedded in life expectancy," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 57-76, January.
    17. Alberto Palloni & Beatriz Novak, 2016. "Subjective survival expectations and observed survival: How consistent are they?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 14(1), pages 187-228.
    18. Dimiter Philipov & Sergei Scherbov, 2020. "Subjective length of life of European individuals at older ages: Temporal and gender distinctions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-14, March.
    19. Angelini, Viola & Cavapozzi, Danilo, 2017. "Dispositional optimism and stock investments," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 113-128.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
    2. Wu, Shang & Stevens, Ralph & Thorp, Susan, 2015. "Cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities: Implications for models of the retirement phase," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-56.
    3. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Measuring revisions to subjective expectations," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 43-82, February.
    4. Joanne W. Hsu, 2016. "Aging and Strategic Learning: The Impact of Spousal Incentives on Financial Literacy," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(4), pages 1036-1067.
    5. Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2022. "Biased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 285-317, December.
    6. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    7. Silvia Balia, 2007. "Reporting expected longevity and smoking: evidence from the SHARE," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 07/10, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    8. Benitez-Silva, Hugo & Dwyer, Debra S., 2006. "Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 191-218, April.
    9. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2003. "What to Expect when you are Expecting Rationality: Testing Rational Expectations using Micro Data," Working Papers wp037, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    10. Rodrigo R. Soares & Bruno L. S. Falcão, 2008. "The Demographic Transition and the Sexual Division of Labor," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(6), pages 1058-1104, December.
    11. de Bresser, Jochem, 2016. "Test-Retest Reliability of Subjective Survival Expectations," Other publications TiSEM dfd6074d-31ae-4ecb-be25-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Celidoni, Martina & Costa-Font, Joan & Salmasi, Luca, 2022. "Too Healthy to Fall Sick? Longevity Expectations and Protective Health Behaviours during the First Wave of COVID-19," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 733-745.
    13. Huynh, Kim P. & Jung, Juergen, 2015. "Subjective health expectations," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 693-711.
    14. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "Measuring Subjective Survival Expectations : Do Response Scales Matter?," Other publications TiSEM 53bc2ec3-4126-4dfb-81f3-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Teresa Bago d'Uva & Esen Erdogan Ciftci & Owen O'Donnell & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2015. "Who can predict their Own Demise? Accuracy of Longevity Expectations by Education and Cognition," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-052/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Differential Mortality in Europe and the U.S. Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Working Papers WR-613, RAND Corporation.
    17. Péter Hudomiet & Robert J. Willis, 2013. "Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 152-170, June.
    18. Di Girolamo, Amalia & Harrison, Glenn W. & Lau, Morten I. & Swarthout, J. Todd, 2015. "Subjective belief distributions and the characterization of economic literacy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-12.
    19. S. Balia, 2011. "Survival expectations, subjective health and smoking: evidence from European countries," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 11/30, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    20. Nils Grevenbrock & Max Groneck & Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2021. "Cognition, Optimism, And The Formation Of Age‐Dependent Survival Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 887-918, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eie:wpaper:1016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Facundo Piguillem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/einauit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.