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Fears and realisations of employment insecurity

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  • Dickerson, Andy
  • Green, Francis

Abstract

We investigate the validity of subjective data on expectations of job loss and on the probability of re-employment consequent on job loss, by examining associations between expectations and realisations. We find that subjective expectations data reveal private information about subsequent realisations both of job loss and of subsequent re-employment. We also compare the use of verbal and numerical descriptors for subjective probability scales. As predictors of subsequent job loss, the expectations data perform better with numerical than with ordinal verbal descriptors. On average, employees overestimate the chance of losing their job; while they underestimate the difficulty of job replacement. We recommend that survey items on employment insecurity should be explicit about each risk under investigation, and utilise a cardinal probability scale with discrete numerical descriptors.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Labour Economics.

Volume (Year): 19 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 198-210

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Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:19:y:2012:i:2:p:198-210

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/labeco

Related research

Keywords: Job insecurity; Expectations; Employability; Job loss;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. McGuinness, Seamus & Wooden, Mark & Hahn, Markus, 2012. "Job Insecurity and Future Labour Market Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 6764, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. John Gathergood, . "Unemployment Expectations, Credit Commitments and Psychological Health," Discussion Papers 12/03, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  3. Green, Francis, 2011. "Unpacking the misery multiplier: How employability modifies the impacts of unemployment and job insecurity on life satisfaction and mental health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 265-276, March.
  4. Garz, Marcel, 2013. "Unemployment expectations, excessive pessimism, and news coverage," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 156-168.
  5. Andreas Knabe & Steffen Rätzel, 2010. "Better an insecure job than no job at all? Unemployment, job insecurity and subjective wellbeing," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2486-2494.
  6. Lokshin, Michael & Gimpelson, Vladimir & Oshchepkov, Aleksey, 2012. "Explaining the Dynamics in Perceptions of Job Insecurity in Russia," IZA Discussion Papers 6422, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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