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Predictors of Mortality Among the Elderly

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Author Info
Michael Hurd
Daniel McFadden
Angela Merrill

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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to find the quantitative importance of some predictors of mortality among the population aged 70 or over. The predictors are socio-economic indicators (income, wealth and education), thirteen health indicators including a history of heart attack or cancer, and subjective probabilities of survival. The estimation is based on mortality between waves 1 and 2 of the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest-Old study. We find that the relationship between socio-economic indicators and mortality declines with age 13 health indicators are strong predictors of mortality and that the subjective survival probabilities predict mortality even after controlling for socio-economic indicators and the health conditions.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7440.

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Date of creation: Dec 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7440

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  1. Hurd, Michael D, 1987. "Savings of the Elderly and Desired Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 298-312, June.
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  2. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2006. "Differential Mortality, Uncertain Medical Expenses, and the Saving of Elderly Singles," NBER Working Papers 12554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Stephen E. Snyder & William N. Evans, 2002. "The Impact of Income on Mortality: Evidence from the Social Security Notch," NBER Working Papers 9197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Cassio M. Turra & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2004. "The Impact of Health Status and Out-of-Pocket Medical Expenditures on Annuity Valuation," Working Papers wp086, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jin-Tan Liu & Meng-Wen Tsou & James Hammitt, 2007. "Health Information and Subjective Survival Probability: Evidence from Taiwan," NBER Working Papers 12864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Halevy, Yoram, 2004. "Diminishing Impatience: Disentangling Time Preference from Uncertain Lifetime," Micro Theory Working Papers halevy-04-10-29-09-59-47, Microeconomics.ca Website, revised 12 Sep 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jonathan S. Feinstein & Chih-Chin Ho, 2000. "Elderly Asset Management and Health: An Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Silvia Balia, 2007. "Reporting expected longevity and smoking: evidence from the SHARE," Working Paper CRENoS 200705, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Carolyn J. Heinrich & Jeffrey B. Wenger, 2002. "The Economic Contributions of James J. Heckman and Daniel L. McFadden," Review of Political Economy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 69-89, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. R. Todd Jewel & Patricia Triunfo & Máximo Rossi, 2005. "El estado de salud de los jóvenes uruguayos," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1305, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Irena Dushi & Anthony Webb, 2004. "Annuitization: Keeping Your Options Open," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-04, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  13. V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor Jr. & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Wojciech Kopczuk & Emmanuel Saez, 2004. "Top Wealth Shares in the United States: 1916-2000: Evidence from Estate Tax Returns," NBER Working Papers 10399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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