The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: Duration analysis of British data
AbstractThis paper presents new evidence on the determinants of starting and quitting smoking using duration data from the British Health and Lifestyle Survey (HALS). Self-reported data in individual smoking histories coupled with availability of a long time series for the tax rate on cigarettes are used to construct a longitudinal data set in which the tax rate is treated as a time varying covariate. This overcomes the problem of the lack of cross section variation in process that has plagued previous studies of smoking in Britain. The study is the first to identify tax-price elasticities for starting and quitting in Britain. Results for age of starting smoking prior to quitting are reported for Cox, Weibull and gamma models. All of the models are estimated separately for males and females and extensive diagnostic tests are used to guide model specification. A sensitivity analysis is used to assess the robustness of the estimated tax elasticities for starting and quitting. Since the early 1990s successive governments have had a commitment to annual increases in the real level of tobacco taxes, to achieve health policy objectives and encourage people to stop smoking. Our estimated price elasticities directly relate to the impact of above inflation tax rises on the number of years smoked by current smokers. The estimates of the impact of tax on the probability of starting and the age of starting are not encouraging as we do not find a significant effect. However the point estimates of the elasticity of quitting are well defined for males and robust for both males and females. All of our point estimates are in the range -0.40 to -0.63. If the typical number of years smoked is 25 years this implies that the 5% real increase in tobacco duty would lead, on average, to a reduction of between 6 and 9.5 months of smoking for each smoker. Recent estimates suggest that there are around 12.1 million current smokers in the UK (ASH 1999). Thus the potential saving in total number of yea
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Statistical Society in its journal Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society).
Volume (Year): 164 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 12 Errol Street, London EC1Y 8LX, United Kingdom
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0964-1998
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Martin Forster & Andrew Jones, 2000. "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: duration analysis of British data," Working Papers 176chedp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Douglas, Stratford, 1998. "The Duration of the Smoking Habit," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 49-64, January.
- Jeffrey E. Harris & Sandra W. Chan, 1999. "The continuum-of-addiction: cigarette smoking in relation to price among Americans aged 15-29," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-86.
- Chaloupka, Frank, 1991.
"Rational Addictive Behavior and Cigarette Smoking,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 722-42, August.
- Frank J. Chaloupka & Henry Wechsler, 1995.
"Price, Tobacco Control Policies and Smoking Among Young Adults,"
NBER Working Papers
5012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chaloupka, Frank J. & Wechsler, Henry, 1997. "Price, tobacco control policies and smoking among young adults," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 359-373, June.
- Shmueli, Amir, 1996. "Smoking cessation and health: A comment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 751-754, December.
- John A. Tauras & Frank J. Chaloupka, 1999. "Determinants of Smoking Cessation: An Analysis of Young Adult Men and Women," NBER Working Papers 7262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Douglas, Stratford & Hariharan, Govind, 1994. "The hazard of starting smoking: Estimates from a split population duration model," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 213-230, July.
- Eugene M. Lewit & Douglas Coate, 1983.
"The Potential for Using Excise Taxes to Reduce Smoking,"
NBER Working Papers
0764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lewit, Eugene M. & Coate, Douglas, 1982. "The potential for using excise taxes to reduce smoking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 121-145, August.
- Lewit, Eugene M & Coate, Douglas & Grossman, Michael, 1981.
"The Effects of Government Regulation on Teenage Smoking,"
Journal of Law and Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 545-69, December.
- Eugene M. Lewit & Douglas Coate & Michael Grossman, 1982. "The Effects of Government Regulation on Teenage Smoking," NBER Working Papers 0655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tunali, Insan & Pritchett, Jonathan B, 1997. "Cox Regression with Alternative Concepts of Waiting Time: The New Orleans Yellow Fever Epidemic of 1853," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, Jan.-Feb..
- Dorsett, Richard, 1999. "An econometric analysis of smoking prevalence among lone mothers," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 429-441, August.
- Jones, Andrew M, 1989. "A Double-Hurdle Model of Cigarette Consumption," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 23-39, Jan.-Mar..
- Frank J. Chaloupka & Michael Grossman, 1996. "Price, Tobacco Control Policies and Youth Smoking," NBER Working Papers 5740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.