Announcing an Increase in the State Pension Age and the Recession: Which Mattered More for Expected Retirement Ages?
AbstractIn March of 2010, the Irish government announced that the age at which the state pension is paid would be raised to 66 in 2014, 67 in 2021 and 68 in 2028. Also during 2010, the economic news became increasingly bad as the full scale of the fiscal and banking crises in Ireland emerged. The question we address in this paper is whether expected retirement ages of Irish individuals aged 50 to 64 changed as a result of the policy announcement and/or the bad economic news. The data we use are from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). Between late 2009 and early 2011, over 8,500 people aged 50 and over in Ireland were interviewed about a wide range of issues including standard socio-economic items such as labour force status, earnings and education. Respondents were also asked at what age they expected to retire. Our findings show that there was no noticeable break in expected retirement ages before and after 3 March 2010 (the day on which the policy announcement was made). However, there was a clear shift of people into the categories "don't plan to retire" and "do not know" before and after September 30 2010. This was the day that the full scale of the banking crisis emerged (named by the media as "Black Thursday") and was followed by the set of events which led to the bailout of November 2010. Similarly, there was a shift away from modal expected retirement ages after that date.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 6325.
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as 'Increasing the State Pension Age, the Recession and Expected Retirement Ages' in: Economic and Social Review 2013, 44 (4), 447-472
Contact details of provider:
Postal: IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org
Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2012-02-20 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAB-2012-02-20 (Labour Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Benitez-Silva, Hugo & Dwyer, Debra S., 2006.
"Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis,"
Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 191-218, April.
- Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2003. "Expectation Formation of Older Married Couples and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Working Papers wp062, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Bissonnette, L. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 2011.
"The Future of Retirement and the Pension System: How the Public’s Expectations Vary over Time and across Socio-Economic Groups,"
2011-065, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Bissonnette, Luc & van Soest, Arthur, 2011. "The Future of Retirement and the Pension System: How the Public's Expectations Vary over Time and across Socio-Economic Groups," IZA Discussion Papers 5759, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Agar Brugiavini, 1997.
"Social Security and Retirement in Italy,"
NBER Working Papers
6155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Purvi Sevak, 2002. "Wealth Shocks and Retirement Timing: Evidence from the Nineties," Working Papers wp027, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Boeri, Tito & Brugiavini, Agar, 2008.
"Pension Reforms and Women Retirement Plans,"
IZA Discussion Papers
3821, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Hugo Benitez-Silva & Debra Dwyer, 2002. "Retirement Expectations Formation Using the Health and Retirement Study," Department of Economics Working Papers 02-04, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics, revised 18 Jun 2002.
- Bottazzi, Renata & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2006.
"Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2006/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Bottazzi, Renata & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2006. "Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2187-2212, December.
- Deborah A. Cobb-Clark & Steven Stillman, 2009. "The Retirement Expectations of Middle-aged Australians," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 146-163, 06.
- Debra S. Dwyer & Jianting Hu, . "Retirement Expectations and Realizations: The Role of Health Shocks and Economic Factors," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-18, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
- Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
- Edward C. Norton & Hua Wang & Chunrong Ai, 2004. "Computing interaction effects and standard errors in logit and probit models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(2), pages 154-167, June.
- Coppola, Michela & Wilke, Christina Benita, 2010. "How sensitive are subjective retirement expectations to increases in the statutory retirement age? The German case," MEA discussion paper series 10207, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- repec:crr:crrwps:2001-08 is not listed on IDEAS
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.