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The Rationality of Retirement Expectations and the Role of New Information

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Author Info
Hugo Benítez-Silva (State Univ of New York-Stony Brook)
Debra S. Dwyer (State Univ of New York-Stony Brook)

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Abstract

This paper tests the rationality of retirement expectations, controlling for sample selection and reporting biases. We find that retirement expectations in the Health and Retirement Study are consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis. We also analyze how new information affects the evolution of retirement expectations and discover that, on average, individuals correctly anticipate most uncertain events when planning their retirement, except for some health shocks, the need for additional private health coverage, and the probability of a job change. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics that assume rational behavior. Copyright (c) 2005 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/0034653054638265
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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 87 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 587-592
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:87:y:2005:i:3:p:587-592

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  1. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Selcuk Eren & Frank Heiland & Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2008. "How Well do Individuals Predict the Selling Prices of their Homes?," Economics Working Papers 1065, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Tracy A. Falba & William T. Gallo & Jody L. Sindelar, 2008. "Work Expectations, Realizations, and Depression in Older Workers," NBER Working Papers 14435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Helen Levy & Kristin Seefeldt, 2008. "How Do Lower-Income Families Think about Retirement?," Working Papers wp195, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kristin J. Kleinjans & Jinkook Lee, 2006. "The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter?," Economics Working Papers 2006-05, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  5. Pierre-Carl Michaud & Arthur van Soest, 2007. "How Did the Elimination of the Earnings Test above the Normal Retirement Age Affect Retirement Expectations?," IZA Discussion Papers 2868, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Ahmed Khwaja & Frank Sloan & Sukyung Chung, 2007. "The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 179-201, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Andre Palma & Moshe Ben-Akiva & David Brownstone & Charles Holt & Thierry Magnac & Daniel McFadden & Peter Moffatt & Nathalie Picard & Kenneth Train & Peter Wakker & Joan Walker, 2008. "Risk, uncertainty and discrete choice models," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 269-285, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • André de Palma & Moshe Ben-Akiva & David Brownstone & Charles Holt & Thierry Magnac & Daniel McFadden & Peter Moffatt & Nathalie Picard & Kenneth Train & Peter Wakker & Joan Walker, 2008. "Risk, Uncertainty and Discrete Choice Models," THEMA Working Papers 2008-02, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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