Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Understanding booms and busts in housing markets

Contents:

Author Info

  • Craig Burnside
  • Martin Eichenbaum
  • Sergio Rebelo

Abstract

Some booms in housing prices are followed by busts. Others are not. In either case it is difficult to find observable fundamentals that are correlated with price movements. We develop a model consistent with these observations. Real estate agents have heterogeneous expectations about long-run fundamentals but change their views because of "social dynamics." Agents meet randomly with one another. Those with tighter priors are more likely to convert others to their beliefs. The model generates a "fad": The fraction of the population with a particular view rises and then falls. Depending on which agent is correct about fundamentals, these fads generate boom-busts or protracted booms.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.frbatlanta.org/documents/cqer/publicationscq/cqerwp/cqer_wp1202.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series CQER Working Paper with number 2012-02.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedacq:2012-02

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1000 Peachtree St., N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30309
Phone: 404-521-8500
Email:
Web page: http://www.frbatlanta.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2006. "Urban growth and housing supply," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 71-89, January.
  2. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "The Great Recession: Lessons from Microeconomic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 51-56, May.
  3. Gadi Barlevy & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2010. "Mortgage choices and housing speculation," Working Paper Series WP-2010-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2005. "Why Have Housing Prices Gone Up?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2061, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Quigley, John M. & Raphael, Steven, 2006. "Regulation and the High Cost of Housing in California," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt3hh7s35m, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  6. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Muhamet Yildiz, 2006. "Learning and Disagreement in an Uncertain World," NBER Working Papers 12648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
  8. Joseph Gyourko & Eduardo Morales & Charles Nathanson & Edward Glaeser, 2011. "Housing Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum Traders in the Housing Market: Survey Evidence and a Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 406-11, May.
  10. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2010. "Ideological Segregation Online and Offline," NBER Working Papers 15916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Brent W. Ambrose & Piet Eichholtz & Thies Lindenthal, 2013. "House Prices and Fundamentals: 355 Years of Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 477-491, 03.
  12. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1987. "On the Inception of Rational Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 697-700, August.
  13. Sendhil Mullainathan & Andrei Shleifer, 2002. "Media Bias," NBER Working Papers 9295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Wilko Bolt & Maria Demertzis & Cees Diks & Marco van der Leij, 2011. "Complex Methods in Economics: An Example of Behavioral Heterogeneity in House Prices," DNB Working Papers 329, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," CEP Discussion Papers dp1064, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013. "Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 518-529.
  4. Alessandro Spelta & Guido Ascari & Nicolò Pecora, 2012. "Boom and Burst in Housing Market with Heterogeneous Agents," Quaderni di Dipartimento 177, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
  5. Agarwal, Sumit & Amromin, Eugene & Ben-David, Itzhak & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2013. "Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program," Working Paper Series WP-2013-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Ren, Yu & Xiong, Cong & Yuan, Yufei, 2012. "House price bubbles in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 786-800.
  7. Tomura, Hajime, 2013. "Heterogeneous beliefs and housing-market boom-bust cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 735-755.
  8. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Hiebert, Paul, 2011. "Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 299-314.
  9. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs E:47/2012, Bank of Finland.
  10. S. Boragan Aruoba & Morris A. Davis & Randall Wright, 2012. "Homework in Monetary Economics: Inflation, Home Production, and the Production of Homes," NBER Working Papers 18276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Roberto Dieci & Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "A simple model of a speculative housing market," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 303-329, April.
  12. Yu Zhu & Randall Wright & Chao He, 2012. "Housing and Liquidity," 2012 Meeting Papers 94, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Sandra Gomes & Caterina Mendicino, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  14. Masanori Kashiwagi, . "Sunspots and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs in the U.S. Housing Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.

Lists

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
  1. Canadian Macro Study Group

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedacq:2012-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Meredith Rector).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.