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House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience

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  • Duca, John V
  • Muellbauer, John
  • Murphy, Anthony

Abstract

Most US house price models break down in the mid-2000's, due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply (associated with the sub-prime mortgage boom) from house price-to-rent ratio and inverted housing demand models. Previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first-time home-buyers. Incorporating a measure of credit conditions--the cyclically adjusted loan-to-value ratio for first time buyers--into house price to rent ratio models yields stable long-run relationships, more precisely estimated effects, reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8360.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8360

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Keywords: credit standards; house price to rent ratio; house prices; subprime mortgages;

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References

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  1. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
  2. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mark Doms & John Krainer, 2007. "Innovations in mortgage markets and increased spending on housing," Working Paper Series 2007-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010. "Housing Markets and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the Future," SERC Discussion Papers 0049, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  5. Sven Rady, 2001. "Housing Market Dynamics: on the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints," FMG Discussion Papers dp375, Financial Markets Group.
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  8. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. John V. Duca & Tao Wu, 2009. "Regulation and the Neo-Wicksellian Approach to Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 799-807, 06.
  10. Cunningham, Christopher R. & Engelhardt, Gary V., 2008. "Housing capital-gains taxation and homeowner mobility: Evidence from the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 803-815, May.
  11. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  13. W. Scott Frame, 2009. "The 2008 federal intervention to stabilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," Working Paper 2009-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  14. Danielle DiMartino & John V. Duca, 2007. "The rise and fall of subprime mortgages," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 2(nov).
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  16. Duca, John V., 1996. "Deposit Deregulation and the Sensitivity of Housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 207-226, September.
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