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Can output explain the predictability and volatility of stock returns?

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  • Rodriguez, Rosa
  • Restoy, Fernando
  • Pena, J. Ignacio
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 163-182

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:21:y:2002:i:2:p:163-182

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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    References

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    1. Barry V. Cozier & Abdul H. Rahman, 1988. "Stock Returns, Inflation, and Real Activity in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 759-74, November.
    2. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991. "Asset returns and intertemporal preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February.
    3. Marathe, Achla & Shawky, Hany A., 1994. "Predictability of stock returns and real output," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 317-331.
    4. Fernando Restoy & Philippe Weil, 2011. "Approximate Equilibrium Asset Prices," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqi, Sciences Po.
    5. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
    6. Sanford J. Grossman & Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 0564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 37-61, January.
    8. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
    9. Philippe Weil, 1989. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 2829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Weil, P., 1991. "Equilibrium Asset Prices with Undiversifiable Labor Income Risk," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1564, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    11. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, . "On the Predictability of Common Stock Returns: World-Wide Evidence (Revised: 22-94)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 23-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    12. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
    14. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
    15. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    16. Peiro, Amado, 1996. "Stock Prices, Production and Interest Rates: Comparison of Three European Countries with the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 221-34.
    17. Miles S. Kimball, 1989. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 2848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Campbell, John Y, 1990. "Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 43-47, May.
    19. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. " Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-28, September.
    20. Gallinger, George W, 1994. "Causality Tests of the Real Stock Return-Real Activity Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 271-88, Summer.
    21. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "The Stock Market and Investment," NBER Working Papers 2925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Malliaris, A. G. & Urrutia, Jorge L., 1991. "An empirical investigation among real, monetary and financial variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 151-158, October.
    23. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    24. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June.
    25. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    26. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Juan Ignacio Pena & Rosa Rodriguez, 2006. "On The Economic Link Between Asset Prices And Real Activity," Business Economics Working Papers wb063209, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    2. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2003. "Are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 777-811, November.
    3. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2007. "House prices and rents in Spain: Does the discount factor matter?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 291-308, November.
    4. Alfonso Mendoza Velázquez & Peter N. Smith, 2013. "Equity Returns and the Business Cycle: the Role of Supply and Demand Shocks," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 100-124, 09.
    5. Habibullah, M.S. & Baharom, A.H. & Fong, Kin Hing, 2009. "Predictive Content of Output and Inflation For Stock Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Selected Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 14114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Juan Ayuso & Roberto Blanco & Fernando Restoy, 2006. "House prices and real interest rates in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0608, Banco de Espa�a.
    7. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2006. "House prices and rents: An equilibrium asset pricing approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 371-388, June.
    8. Fernando Restoy & Rosa Rodríguez, 2005. "Can fundamentals explain cross-country correlations of asset returns?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0540, Banco de Espa�a.
    9. Belén Nieto & Rosa Rodríguez, 2006. "The Consumption/Wealth and Book/Market Ratios in a Dynamic Asset Pricing Contex," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 199-226, September.
    10. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2006. "House prices and rents in Spain: does the discount factor matter?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0609, Banco de Espa�a.

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