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Lagged country returns and international stock return predictability during business cycle recession periods

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  • Yi-Chieh Wen
  • Bin Li

Abstract

This study examines stock return predictability in business cycle fluctuations across 17 developed countries and 26 developing countries over the period from January 1970 to December 2019. We uncover that lagged U.S. returns can be regarded as a reliable predictor only during recessions. The results remain robust after controlling for commonly used return predictors. Our empirical findings carry some implications for the role of leading markets, fundamental uncertainty, change in investors’ beliefs and dynamics of stock return volatility in economic downturns.

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  • Yi-Chieh Wen & Bin Li, 2020. "Lagged country returns and international stock return predictability during business cycle recession periods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(46), pages 5005-5019, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:46:p:5005-5019
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1752899
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    2. Takuro Hidaka & Yuta Saito & Jun Sakamoto, 2021. "Historical Relationships and International Market Return Predictability: The Role of the UK in the Former British Colonies, Protectorates and Mandates," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 21-08-Rev., Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, revised Oct 2023.
    3. Ioana Manuela Mîndrican, 2023. "Monetary policy measures and strategies in the context of the adoption of the euro currency," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 8(14), pages 84-97, May.

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