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Are Correlations of Stock Returns Justified by Subsequent Changes in National Outputs?

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Author Info
Dumas, Bernard (INSEAD)
Harvey, Campbell R. (Duke U)
Ruiz, Pierre (HEC School of Management)

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Abstract

In an integrated world capital market, the same pricing kernel is applicable to all securities. We apply this idea to the stock returns of different countries. We investigate the underlying determinants of cross-country stock return correlations. First, we determine, for a given, measured degree of commonality of country outputs, what should be the degree of correlation of national stock returns. To that end, we develop a model containing a statistical model for output and an intertemporal financial market model for stock returns. We then match the correlations generated by the model with measured correlations. We find that actual correlations can be matched to what they should be in a unified market but that they are much larger than they should be in fully segmented financial markets.

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Paper provided by University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center in its series Working Papers with number 00-2.

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Date of creation: Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:upafin:00-2

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "A Latent Time Series Model of the Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(3), pages 559-75, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Campbell, John Y. & Koo, Hyeng Keun, 1997. "A comparison of numerical and analytic approximate solutions to an intertemporal consumption choice problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 273-295. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1999. "International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Correlations," NBER Working Papers 7056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Shiller, Robert J, 1989. " Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 719-29, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ammer, John & Mei, Jianping, 1996. " Measuring International Economic Linkages with Stock Market Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1743-63, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Juan Pedro Gomez, 2005. "An International Capm With Consumption Externalities And Non-Financial Wealth," Working Papers Economia wp05-08, Instituto de Empresa, Area of Economic Environment. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gérard & Arjan Kadareja & Simone Manganelli, 2006. "Financial integration of new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 683, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2006. "Looking far in the past: Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp134, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Albuquerque, Rui & Vega, Clara, 2006. "Asymmetric Information in the Stock Market: Economic News and Co-movement," CEPR Discussion Papers 5598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Renatas Kizys & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Business Cycle Fluctuations and International Financial Integration," Kiel Working Papers 1197, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Fernando Restoy & Rosa Rodríguez, 2006. "Can Fundamentals Explain Cross-Country Correlations of Asset Returns?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 585-598, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Marco Gallegati, 2005. "A Wavelet Analysis of MENA Stock Markets," Finance 0512027, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michael Brandt & John Cochrane & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2001. "International Risk Sharing is Better Than You Think (or Exchange Rates are Much Too Smooth!," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1015, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Juan Piñeiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  10. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers 04-42, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Fernando Restoy & Rosa Rodríguez, 2005. "Can fundamentals explain cross-country correlations of asset returns?," Banco de España Working Papers 0540, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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