Stochastic Volatility, Long Run Risks, and Aggregate Stock Market Fluctuations
AbstractWhat are the main drivers of fluctuations in the aggregate US stock market? In this paper, we attempt to resolve the long-lasting debate surrounding this question by designing and solving a consumption-based asset pricing model which incorporates stochastic volatility, long-run risks in consumption and dividends, and Epstein-Zin preferences. Utilizing Bayesian MCMC techniques, we estimate the model by fitting it to US data on the level of the aggregate US stock market, the short-term real risk-free interest rate, real consumption growth, and real dividend growth. Our results indicate that, over short and medium horizons, fluctuations in the level of the aggregate US stock market are mainly driven by changes in expected excess returns. Conversely, low frequency movements in the aggregate stock market are primarily driven by changes in the expected long-run growth rate of real dividends.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 323.
Length: 61 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
asset pricing; stochastic volatility; long-run risks; Bayesian MCMC Methods;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ravi Bansal & Robert F. Dittmar & Christian T. Lundblad, 2005. "Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1639-1672, 08.
- Ravi Bansal & Robert Dittmar & Dana Kiku, 2009.
"Cointegration and Consumption Risks in Asset Returns,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1343-1375, March.
- Ravi Bansal & Robert Dittmar & Dana Kiku, 2007. "Cointegration and Consumption Risks in Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 13108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2001.
"Low frequency movements in stock prices: a state space decomposition,"
0001, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2002. "Low-Frequency Movements in Stock Prices: A State-Space Decomposition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 649-667, November.
- Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2006. "What Drives Stock Prices? Identifying the Determinants of Stock Price Movements," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 55â€“78, July.
- Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008.
"The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-41, June.
- Giorgio Primiceri & Alejandro Justiniano, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2006 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 12022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefan Avdjiev, 2011. "News driven business cycles and data on asset prices in estimated DSGE models," BIS Working Papers 358, Bank for International Settlements.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.