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Leverage and House-Price Dynamics in U.S. Cities

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  • Owen Lamont
  • Jeremy C. Stein

Abstract

In this paper, we use city-level data to analyze the relationship between homeowner borrowing patterns and house-price dynamics. Our principal finding is that in cities where homeowners are more leveraged--i.e., have higher loan-to-value ratios--house prices react more sensitively to city-specific shocks, such as changes in per-capita income. This finding is consistent with recent theories which emphasize the role of collateralized borrowing in shaping the behavior of asset prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5961.

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Date of creation: Mar 1997
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Publication status: published as RAND Journal of Economics, Vol. 30, no. 3 (Autumn 1999): 498-514.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5961

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  1. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 3242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
  3. Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1988. "Margin requirements, volatility, and the transitory component of stock prices," Research Paper 8818, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
  5. Andrew Caplin & Charles Freeman & Joseph Tracy, 1993. "Collateral Damage: How Refinancing Constraints Exacerbate Regional Recessions," NBER Working Papers 4531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  7. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  8. Jeremy C. Stein, 1993. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Downpayment Effects," NBER Working Papers 4373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. " Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-66, September.
  10. Hsieh, David A & Miller, Merton H, 1990. " Margin Regulation and Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, March.
  11. Jesse M. Abraham & Patric H. Hendershott, 1994. "Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 4774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. John Krainer & Mark Spiegel & Nobuyoshi Yamori, 2005. "Asset price declines and real estate market illiquidity: evidence from Japanese land values," Working Paper Series 2004-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Steven C. BOURASSA & Donald R. HAURIN & Jessica L. HAURIN & Martin HOESLI & Jian SUN, 2005. "House Price Changes and Idiosyncratic Risk: The Impact of Property Characteristics," FAME Research Paper Series rp160, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  4. Charles Ka-yui Leung & Dandan Feng, 2004. "Testing Alternative Theories of Property Price-Trading Volume with Commercial Real Estate Market Data," Departmental Working Papers _159, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
  5. Luci Ellis, 2006. "Housing and Housing Finance: The View from Australia and Beyond," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  6. Charles Leung & Dandan Feng, 2005. "What Drives the Property Price-Trading Volume Correlation? Evidence from a Commercial Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 241-255, September.
  7. Michael Brocker & Christopher Hanes, 2013. "The 1920s American Real Estate Boom and the Downturn of the Great Depression: Evidence from City Cross-Sections," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 161-201 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2007:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Eerola, Essi & Määttänen, Niku, 2008. "On the importance of borrowing constraints for house price dynamics," Research Discussion Papers 8/2008, Bank of Finland.
  10. Yong Tu & Seow Ong & Ying Han, 2009. "Turnovers and Housing Price Dynamics: Evidence from Singapore Condominium Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 254-274, April.
  11. Lamorna Rogers, 2014. "An A to Z of loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 77, pages 3-14, March.
  12. William Goetzmann & Matthew Spiegel, 2000. "The Policy Implications of Portfolio Choice in Underserved Mortgage Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm161, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2001.
  13. Favara, Giovanni & Song, Zheng, 2014. "House price dynamics with dispersed information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 350-382.
  14. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03.
  15. Matthew Spiegel, 1999. "Housing Return And Construction Cycles," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm114, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2001.

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