Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

A behavioral model of house prices

Contents:

Author Info

  • Madsen, Jakob B.

Abstract

This paper proposes a model in which house prices are determined by economy-wide nominal income and nominal mortgage payments in the short run, while being determined by acquisition costs in the long run. The model, to a large extent, explains the 1995–2007 housing market run-up in the OECD countries by lower mortgage repayments, decreasing nominal interest rates, and increasing nominal GDP, partly induced by a large inflow of migrants. Empirical estimates give strong support for the model and suggest that it explains house prices in the OECD better than alternative models.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268111003118
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

Volume (Year): 82 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 21-38

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:82:y:2012:i:1:p:21-38

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo

Related research

Keywords: Behavior of house prices; Institutions; Affordability; Financial innovations; Tobin's q;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Roszbach, Kasper, 2003. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and the Survival of Loans," Working Paper Series 154, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  2. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1988. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
  5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," NBER Working Papers 12810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jakob B Madsen, 2011. "A q Model of House Prices," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 03-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  7. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1630, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Oct 2007.
  8. Dougherty, Ann & Van Order, Robert, 1982. "Inflation, Housing Costs, and the Consumer Price Index," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 154-64, March.
  9. John C. Weicher, 1977. "The Affordability of New Homes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 5(2), pages 209-226.
  10. Sarah J. Carrington & Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "House Prices, Credit and Willingness to Lend," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 23-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  11. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
  12. Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, 09.
  13. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
  14. Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
  15. Robert Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2557, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2007.
  16. Marianne A. Hilgert & Jeanne M. Hogarth & Sondra G. Beverly, 2003. "Household financial management: the connection between knowledge and behavior," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jul, pages 309-322.
  17. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2006. "Baby Boomer Retirement Security: The Roles of Planning, Financial Literacy, and Housing Wealth," CeRP Working Papers 54, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  18. Muellbauer, J & Murphy, A, 1996. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economics Papers 125, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  19. Engelhardt, Gary V, 1996. "Consumption, Down Payments, and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 255-71, May.
  20. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
  21. Eun Young Chah & Valerie A. Ramey & Ross M. Starr, 1991. "Liquidity Constraints and Intertemporal Consumer Optimization: Theory and Evidence From Durable Goods," NBER Working Papers 3907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
  23. Madsen, Jakob B., 2009. "Taxes and the fundamental value of houses," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 365-376, May.
  24. Shefrin, Hersh M & Thaler, Richard H, 1988. "The Behavioral Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 609-43, October.
  25. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  26. Oecd, 2005. "Improving Financial Literacy: Analysis of Issues and Policies," Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2005(2), pages 111-123.
  27. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  28. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
  29. Nikoloz Gigineishvili, 2011. "Determinants of Interest Rate Pass-Through," IMF Working Papers 11/176, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Jakob B Madsen, 2011. "A Repayment Model of House Prices," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 09-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  31. Buckley, Robert & Ermisch, John, 1982. "Government Policy and House Prices in the United Kingdom: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 44(4), pages 273-304, November.
  32. Jakob Madsen, 2007. "Pitfalls in estimates of the relationship between stock returns and inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 1-21, July.
  33. Shafir, Eldar & Diamond, Peter & Tversky, Amos, 1997. "Money Illusion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 341-74, May.
  34. Koskela, Erkki & Loikkanen, Heikki A. & Viren, Matti, 1992. "House prices, household saving and financial market liberalization in Finland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 549-558, April.
  35. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:82:y:2012:i:1:p:21-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.