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House prices and financial liberalisation in Australia

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  • David M. Williams

Abstract

Financial liberalisation and innovation (FLIB) in Australia over the 1980s and 1990s provided the institutional backdrop for one of the most rapid increases in household balance sheets and house prices in the world.� An equilibrium correction model of quarterly Australian house prices for 1972-2006 identifies the key long run drivers as real non-property income per house, the working age population proportion, the unemployment rate, two government policy changes, real and nominal interest rates and non-price credit conditions.� All else equal, easing credit supply conditions attributable to FLIB directly raised the long run level of real house prices by around 51 per cent while higher real interest rates subtracted 29 per cent from long run prices.� Real interest rates are shown to have a significant impact on real house prices after financial liberalisation but play no role before.� These findings suggest that FLIB fundamentally relaxed binding credit constraints on households and enhanced opportunities for intertemporal smoothing.� The model also explicitly captures short run overshooting dynamics in Australian house prices.� Whenever lagged real house price growth is greater than about 4 per cent, for example during booms, house prices tend to display "frenzy" behaviour measured as a cubic of lagged house price changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 432.

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Date of creation: 01 May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:432

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Keywords: House prices; Mortgage markets; Financial liberalisation;

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Cited by:
  1. Muellbauer, John & Williams, David M, 2011. "Credit Conditions and the Real Economy: The Elephant in the Room," CEPR Discussion Papers 8386, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. David M. Williams, 2010. "Consumption, wealth and credit liberalisation in Australia," Economics Series Working Papers 492, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
  4. Kelly, Robert & McQuinn, Kieran, 2013. "On the hook for impaired bank lending: Do sovereign-bank inter-linkages affect the fiscal multiplier?," Research Technical Papers 01/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
  5. Márquez, Elena & Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2013. "Wealth shocks, credit conditions and asymmetric consumption response: Empirical evidence for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 357-366.
  6. Veronica John Muellbauer & Veronica David M Williams, 2012. "Credit conditions and the real economy: the elephant in the room," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 95-101 Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Shengzu Wang & Patrizia Tumbarello, 2010. "What Drives House Prices in Australia? A+L4584 Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 10/291, International Monetary Fund.

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