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Booms, Busts and Ripples in British Regional Housing Markets

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Author Info
Gavin Cameron (Dept of Economics, University of Oxford)
John Muellbauer (Nuffield College, Oxford)
Anthony Murphy (Nuffield College, Oxford)

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Abstract

We present and discuss an annual econometric model of regional house prices in Britain estimated over the period 1972 to 2003. The model, which consists of a system of inverted housing demand equations, is data consistent, incorporates spatial lags and errors, has some spatial coefficient heterogeneity, has a plausible long run solution and includes a full range of explanatory variables. We use our results to explain the periods of boom and bust and the ripple effect from London house prices to house prices elsewhere. We also address the issue of whether there has been a bubble in the British housing market

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0512003.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 06 Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0512003

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 41
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Related research
Keywords: House Prices Ripple Effect Bubble

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other

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  1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Earnings, unemployment, and housing in Britain," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 203-220. [Downloadable!]
  3. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
  4. Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "The rise in house prices in Dublin: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 281-295, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ashworth, John & Parker, Simon C, 1997. "Modelling Regional House Prices in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(3), pages 225-46, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John, 1998. "The Housing Market and Regional Commuting and Migration Choices," CEPR Discussion Papers 1945, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. John Muellbauer & Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumer credit conditions in the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 70, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  8. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John, 2000. "Earnings Biases in the United Kingdom Regional Accounts: Some Economic Policy and Research Implications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(464), pages F412-29, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Geraint Johnes & Thomas Hyclak, . "House Prices and Regional Labor Markets," Working Papers ec15/93, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
  11. Johnes, Geraint & Hyclak, Thomas, 1994. "House Prices, Migration, and Regional Labor Markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 312-329, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bover, Olympia & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1989. "Housing, Wages and UK Labour Markets," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(2), pages 97-136, March.
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  13. Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 1994. "Regional House Prices and Possessions in England and Wales: An Empirical Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 475-482, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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