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Housing Return and Construction Cycles

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  • Matthew Spiegel
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    Abstract

    This paper presents a general equilibrium model of the residential housing market. Within the model housing returns, housing construction, mortgage loan terms, and household maintenance behavior are all endogenous. These interacting elements tie expected housing returns to expected changes in family wealth. As a result: (1) families are credit constrained; (2) mortgage loan-to-value ratios can be used to forecast future housing returns; (3) developers acquire land when expected housing returns lie above the rate of interest and then develop when housing returns lie below. Thus, their holdings and construction decisions also forecast housing returns. Copyright 2001 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

    Volume (Year): 29 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 521-551

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:29:y:2001:i:4:p:521-551

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    Cited by:
    1. Clapp, John M. & Bardos, Katsiaryna Salavei & Wong, S.K., 2012. "Empirical estimation of the option premium for residential redevelopment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 240-256.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006. "Money illusion and housing frenzies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4806, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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