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The depth of negative equity and mortgage default decisions

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  • Neil Bhutta
  • Jane Dokko
  • Hui Shan
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Abstract

A central question in the literature on mortgage default is at what point underwater homeowners walk away from their homes even if they can afford to pay. We study borrowers from Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada who purchased homes in 2006 using non-prime mortgages with 100 percent financing. Almost 80 percent of these borrowers default by the end of the observation period in September 2009. After distinguishing between defaults induced by job losses and other income shocks from those induced purely by negative equity, we find that the median borrower does not strategically default until equity falls to -62 percent of their home's value. This result suggests that borrowers face high default and transaction costs. Our estimates show that about 80 percent of defaults in our sample are the result of income shocks combined with negative equity. However, when equity falls below -50 percent, half of the defaults are driven purely by negative equity. Therefore, our findings lend support to both the "double-trigger" theory of default and the view that mortgage borrowers exercise the implicit put option when it is in their interest.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2010-35.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2010-35

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Related research

Keywords: Mortgage loans ; Subprime mortgage;

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References

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  1. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2008. "Housing Busts and Household Mobility," NBER Working Papers 14310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
  4. Manuel Adelino & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Why don't lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? redefaults, self-cures, and securitization," Working Paper 2009-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Quigley, John M & Van Order, Robert, 1995. "Explicit Tests of Contingent Claims Models of Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 99-117, September.
  6. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1999. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity, and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt96r560pg, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  7. Kau James B. & Keenan Donald C. & Kim Taewon, 1994. "Default Probabilities for Mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 278-296, May.
  8. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Making sense of the subprime crisis," Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362, February.
  10. Todd Sinai, 1997. "Taxation, User Cost, and Household Mobility Decisions," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 303, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
  11. Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2010. "Recourse and residential mortgage default: theory and evidence from U.S. states," Working Paper 09-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kenneth P. Brevoort & Cheryl R. Cooper, 2010. "Foreclosure's wake: the credit experiences of individuals following foreclosure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2012. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," CEPR Discussion Papers 8934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2012. "Payment size, negative equity, and mortgage default," Public Policy Discussion Paper 12-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  4. Chris Cunningham & Robert R. Reed, 2012. "Housing wealth and wage bargaining," Working Paper 2012-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Kelly, Robert & McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2011. "Impairment and Negative Equity in the Irish Mortgage Market," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
  6. Higgins, Eric & Calomiris, Charles, 2011. "Policy Briefings: Are Delays to the Foreclosure Process a Good Thing?," Working paper 641, Regulation2point0.
  7. Alicia Sasser Modestino & Julia Dennett, 2012. "Are American homeowners locked into their houses?: the impact of housing market conditions on state-to-state migration," Working Papers 12-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  8. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Policy Instruments To Lean Against The Wind In Latin America," IMF Working Papers 11/159, International Monetary Fund.
  9. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.), Property Markets and Financial Stability Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. Raven Molloy & Hui Shan, 2011. "The post-foreclosure experience of U.S. households," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Lydon, Reamonn & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2011. "What Lies Beneath? Understanding Recent Trends in Irish Mortgage Arrears," Research Technical Papers 14/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
  12. Craig A. Depken II & Harris Hollans & Steve Swidler, 2011. "Flips, flops and foreclosures: anatomy of a real estate bubble," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 49-65, February.
  13. Breck Robinson, 2012. "The performance of non-owner-occupied mortgages during the housing crisis," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 2Q, pages 111-138.
  14. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2011. "A Model of Mortgage Default," NBER Working Papers 17516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2012. "Mortgage Financing in the Housing Boom and Bust," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Susan Lund & Charles Roxburgh, 2010. "Debt and Deleveraging," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, PO Box 69, Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, RG9 1GB, vol. 11(2), pages 1-30, April.

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