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Negative equity and foreclosure: theory and evidence

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Author Info
Christopher L. Foote
Kristopher Gerardi
Paul S. Willen

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Abstract

Millions of Americans have negative housing equity, meaning that the outstanding balance on their mortgage exceeds their home’s current market value. Our data show that the overwhelming majority of these households will not lose their homes. Our finding is consistent with historical evidence: we examine more than 100,000 homeowners in Massachusetts who had negative equity during the early 1990s and find that fewer than 10 percent of these owners eventually lost their home to foreclosure. This result is also, contrary to popular belief, completely consistent with economic theory, which predicts that from the borrower’s perspective, negative equity is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for foreclosure. Our findings imply that lenders and policymakers face a serious information problem in trying to help borrowers with negative equity, because it is difficult to determine which borrowers actually require help in order to prevent the loss of their homes to foreclosure.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Public Policy Discussion Paper with number 08-3.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbpp:08-3

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Related research
Keywords: Foreclosure;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kristopher Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007. "Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures," Working Papers 07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kau James B. & Keenan Donald C. & Kim Taewon, 1994. "Default Probabilities for Mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 278-296, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul S. Willen, 2008. "Subprime facts: what (we think) we know about the subprime crisis and what we don’t," Public Policy Discussion Paper 08-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  4. Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The evolution of the subprime mortgage market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 31-56. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yuliya Demyanyk, 2009. "Quick exits of subprime mortgages," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 79-94. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christopher Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul Willen, 2009. "Reducing Foreclosures: No Easy Answers," NBER Working Papers 15063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2009. "Technological change, financial innovation, and diffusion in banking," Working Paper 2009-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul S. Willen, 2008. "Subprime facts: what (we think) we know about the subprime crisis and what we don’t," Public Policy Discussion Paper 08-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Making sense of the subprime crisis," Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Luci Ellis, 2008. "How many in negative equity? The role of mortgage contract characteristics," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrew Haughwout & Richard Peach & Joseph Tracy, 2008. "Juvenile delinquent mortgages: bad credit or bad economy?," Staff Reports 341, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2009. "Moral and Social Constraints to Strategic Default on Mortgages," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/27, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Christopher J. Mayer & Karen M. Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2008. "The rise in mortgage defaults," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. W. Scott Frame, 2009. "The 2008 federal intervention to stabilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," Working Paper 2009-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  12. Luci Ellis, 2008. "The housing meltdown: Why did it happen in the United States?," BIS Working Papers 259, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Subprime mortgages, foreclosures, and urban neighborhoods," Working Paper 2009-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

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