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Google Search Queries, Foreclosures, and House Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Damian S. Damianov

    (Durham University Business School)

  • Xiangdong Wang

    (Durham University Business School)

  • Cheng Yan

    (University of Essex)

Abstract

We study whether Google search behavior for “mortgage assistance” and “foreclosure help” aggregated in the mortgage default risk indicator (MDRI) of Chauvet et al. (2016) helps predict future house prices and foreclosures in local residential markets. Using a long-run equilibrium model, we disaggregate house prices into their fundamental and bubble components, and we find that MDRI dampens both components of house prices. This negative relationship is robust to various model specifications and time horizons. A higher intensity of search online, however, is associated with lower future foreclosure rates. We also find that foreclosure rates increase after a decline in the fundamental component of home values, but are not sensitive to their transitory (bubble) component. Foreclosure rates are higher in metropolitan areas located in non-recourse states. We interpret these findings as evidence for strategic household behavior. Our paper sheds new light on the predictive power of household sentiment derived from Google searches on prices and foreclosure rates in local housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Damian S. Damianov & Xiangdong Wang & Cheng Yan, 2021. "Google Search Queries, Foreclosures, and House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 177-209, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:63:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11146-020-09789-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-020-09789-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Bouras, Christos & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Lesame, Keagile, 2023. "Forecasting state- and MSA-level housing returns of the US: The role of mortgage default risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage default risk; Foreclosures; House prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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