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Explicit Tests of Contingent Claims Models of Mortgage Defaults

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Author Info
John M. Quigley.

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Abstract

This paper provides explicit and powerful tests of contingent claims approaches to modelling mortgage default. We investigate a model of frictionless default (i.e., one in which transactions costs, reputation costs and moving costs play no role) and analyze its implications -- the relationship between equity and default, the timing of default, its dependence upon initial conditions, and the severity of losses. Absent transactions costs and other market imperfections, economic theory makes well-defined predictions about these various outcomes. The empirical analysis is based upon two particularly rich bodies of micro data: one indicating the default and loss experience of all mortgages purchased by the Federal Home Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac); and a large sample of all repeat sales of single family houses whose mortgages were purchased by Freddie mac since 1976.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of California at Berkeley in its series Economics Working Papers with number 93-221.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 1993
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Handle: RePEc:ucb:calbwp:93-221

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  1. Song Han, 2002. "On the economics of discrimination in credit markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Hartarska, Valentina & Gonzalez-Vega, Claudio, 2001. "Credit Counseling And Mortgage Loan Default By Rural And Urban Low Income Households," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20740, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  3. Hartarska, Valentina & Gonzalez-Vega, Claudio, 2002. "A Comparison Of Option-Theoretic And Choice-Theoretic Approaches To Evaluating Alternative Financial Technologies For Mortgage Loans To Low-Income Households," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19645, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  4. Danny Ben-Shahar, 2006. "Screening Mortgage Default Risk: A Unified Theoretical Framework," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(3), pages 215-240. [Downloadable!]
  5. David Feldman & Shulamith Gross, 2005. "Mortgage Default: Classification Trees Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 369-396, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2009. "Moral and Social Constraints to Strategic Default on Mortgages," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/27, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Timothy Riddiough & Paul Childs & Steven Ott, 2001. "Noise, Real Estate Markets, and Options on Real Assets: Applications," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 01-06, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Valentina Hartarska & Claudio Gonzalez-Vega, 2005. "Credit Counseling and Mortgage Termination by Low-Income Households," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 227-243, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kelly D. Edmiston & Roger Zalneraitis, 2007. "Rising foreclosures in the United States: a perfect storm," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 115-145. [Downloadable!]
  10. Claudio Gonzalez-Vega & Valentina Hartarska, 2005. "Credit counseling and mortgage termination by low-income households," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
  11. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Nai Jia Lee, 2003. "Expected Return of Housing and Mortgage Termination," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 75-101. [Downloadable!]
  13. Wayne Passmore & Roger Sparks, 1997. "The effect of automated underwriting on the profitability of mortgage securitization," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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