Payment Size, Negative Equity, and Mortgage Default
AbstractSurprisingly little is known about the importance of mortgage payment size for default, as efforts to measure the treatment effect of rate increases or loan modifications are confounded by borrower selection. We study a sample of hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages that have experienced large rate reductions over the past years and are largely immune to these selection concerns. We show that interest rate reductions dramatically affect repayment behavior, even for borrowers who are significantly underwater on their mortgages. Our estimates imply that cutting a borrower’s payment in half reduces his hazard of becoming delinquent by about 55 percent, an effect approximately equivalent to lowering the borrower’s combined loan-to-value ratio from 145 to 95 (holding the payment fixed). These findings shed light on the driving forces behind default behavior and have important implications for public policy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19345.
Date of creation: Aug 2013
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- Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2012. "Payment size, negative equity, and mortgage default," Staff Reports 582, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2012. "Payment size, negative equity, and mortgage default," Public Policy Discussion Paper 12-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-09-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2013-09-26 (Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2013-09-26 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-URE-2013-09-26 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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