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Beyond Macro Variables: Consumer Confidence Index and Household Expenditure in Hungary

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Author Info

  • Gábor Vadas

    ()
    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

This paper analyses Hungarian inflation expectations drawn from Reuters survey of professional forecasters. Comparing individual forecasts to macroeconomic consensus leads to the conclusion that - in line with theoretical considerations - averaging single projections results in significant gains in terms of forecast accuracy. Econometric tests reveal that consensus forecast is an unbiased estimation of actual inflation, although autocorrelation in forecasts errors and revisions contradicts the requirement of efficiency. Taking into account the varying sample and the heterogeneity of particular forecasts, minor changes in consensus (0.1-0.2 percentage points) usually may not be considered as an unambiguous sign of altering inflation expectations. On the other hand, three consecutive changes in the same direction are almost surely the consequence of shift in actual expectations.

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File URL: http://english.mnb.hu/Root/Dokumentumtar/MNB/Kiadvanyok/mnbhu_mnbtanulmanyok/mnbhu_hattertanulmany/mnbhu_ht200102_hu/bs2001_2v.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Background Studies (discontinued) with number 2001/2.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mnb:backgr:2001/2

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Web page: http://www.mnb.hu/
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Cited by:
  1. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Gabor Vadas & Gergely Kiss, 2005. "The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission," Macroeconomics 0512010, EconWPA.

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