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Modelling Households' Savings and Dwellings Investment - A Portfolio Choice Approach

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  • Gabor Vadas

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

A house is generally considered as a 'roof over one's head', however, housing can be regarded as an investment or asset. Our paper focuses on this function of dwellings and develops a stochastic portfolio choice model for the housing market, which is easy to incorporate into medium and large-scale macro models. Theoretical results suggest that house prices move in line with households' income, although house prices have a higher variance than income does. On the other hand the positive correlation between the return on housing investment and consumption not only implies positive relationship between the portfolio share of housing investment and excess return but also renders the housing wealth inappropriate in consumption smoothing. We use UK data to test these theoretical implications of the model. In this case, empirical results strengthen the model framework.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0507013.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 13 Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0507013

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 24
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: households’ behaviour; housing investment; saving; portfolio decision; house price;

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  1. Poterba, James M, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November.
  2. Christopher J. Mayer & C. Tsuriel Somerville, 1996. "Unifying empirical and theoretical models of housing supply," Working Papers 96-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  3. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
  4. Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  5. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
  6. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-27, November.
  7. Nigel Pain and Peter Westaway, 1996. "Modelling Structural Change In The UK Housing Market: A Comparison Of Alternative House Price Models," NIESR Discussion Papers 98, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  8. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  9. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Zoltán M. Jakab & András Mihály Kovács, 2002. "Hungary in the NIGEM model," MNB Working Papers 2002/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  11. Ming-Chi Chen & Kanak Patel, 1998. "House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality: An Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling Market," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 1(1), pages 101-126.
  12. Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD Publishing.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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Cited by:
  1. Gabor Vadas & Gergely Kiss, 2005. "The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission," Macroeconomics 0512010, EconWPA.

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