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Unifying empirical and theoretical models of housing supply

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Author Info
Christopher J. Mayer
C. Tsuriel Somerville

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Abstract

Housing supply plays an important role in the volatility of macroeconomic cycles and the speed with which house prices respond to changes in demand, yet it is understudied in the current literature. In this paper we present and estimate a new model of the supply of residential construction that is consistent with the theoretical treatment of land development and urban growth. This model shows that new housing construction is best described as a function of changes in house prices and costs rather than as a function of the levels of those variables. Previous research that uses the price levels specification has the drawback that a one-time increase in the number of households that raises the level of real house prices leads to a permanent jump in new construction and thus an infinite increase in the stock of housing. The empirical tests of the model support our new specification, which performs better than alternative models in out-of-sample forecasts. Our estimates suggest a fairly moderate response of supply to house price changes. A 10 percent rise in real house prices leads to an 0.8 percent increase in the housing stock, which is accompanied by a temporary 180 percent increase in the average number of quarterly starts, spread over four quarters.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 96-12.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:96-12

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Keywords: Housing ; Econometric models;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Wheaton, William C., 1982. "Urban residential growth under perfect foresight," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Poterba, James M, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Stover, Mark Edward, 1986. "The price elasticity of the supply of single-family detached urban housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 331-340, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Olsen, Edgar O., 1987. "The demand and supply of housing service: A critical survey of the empirical literature," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 25, pages 989-1022 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1990. "The stochastic city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 187-203, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Smith, Lawrence B & Rosen, Kenneth T & Fallis, George, 1988. "Recent Developments in Economic Models of Housing Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 29-64, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Arnott, Richard J & Lewis, Frank D, 1979. "The Transition of Land to Urban Use," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(1), pages 161-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jon Faust, 1993. "Near observational equivalence and unit root processes: formal concepts and implications," International Finance Discussion Papers 447, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. Christopher J. Mayer & C. Tsuriel Somerville, 1996. "Regional housing supply and credit constraints," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 39-51. [Downloadable!]
  15. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Quigg, Laura, 1993. " Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 621-40, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Gábor Vadas, 2004. "Modelling Households’ Savings and Dwellings Investment – A Portfolio Choice Approach," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 7(1), pages 31-55. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2008. "Estimating the Structural Demand for Irish Housing," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/08, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
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