The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients
AbstractThe US housing market has experienced significant cyclical volatility over the last twenty-five years due to major structural changes and economic fluctuations. In addition, the housing market is generally considered to be weak form inefficient. Houses are relatively illiquid, exceptionally heterogeneous, and are associated with large transactions costs. As such, past research has shown that it is possible to predict, at least partially, the time path of housing prices. The ability to predict housing prices is important such that investors can make better asset allocation decisions, including the pricing and underwriting of mortgages. Most of the prior studies examining the US housing market have employed constant coefficient approaches to forecast house price movements. However, this approach is not optimal as an examination of data reveals substantial sub-sample parameter instability. To account for the parameter instability, we employ alternative estimation methodologies where the estimated parameters are allowed to vary over time. The results provide strong empirical evidence in favor of utilizing the rolling Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) Model and the Kalman Filter with an Autoregressive Presentation (KAR) for the parameters’ time variation. Lastly, we provide out-of-sample forecasts and demonstrate the precision of our approach. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2004
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.
Volume (Year): 30 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945
house prices; Kalman filter; rolling GARCH; rolling VECM;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1991.
"The Measurement and Determinants of Single-Family House Prices,"
Real Estate Economics,
American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 353-382.
- Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1991. "The measurement and determinants of single-family house prices," Working Papers 91-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- F J Breedon & M A S Joyce, 1993. "House prices, arrears and possessions: A three equation model for the UK," Bank of England working papers 14, Bank of England.
- Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Eugene A. Brady, 1967. "A Sectoral Econometric Study of the Postwar Residential-Housing Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 147.
- Hall, Stephen & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Switching error-correction models of house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-527, October.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983.
"Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions,"
NBER Working Papers
1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Stephen Malpezzi, 1998.
"A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices,"
Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers
98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
- Brown, Jane P. & Song, Haiyan & McGillivray, Alan, 1997. "Forecasting UK house prices: A time varying coefficient approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 529-548, October.
- Goetzmann, William N & Spiegel, Matthew, 1997.
"A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability,"
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,
Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 11-31, Jan.-Marc.
- William N. Goetzmann and Matthew Spiegel., 1995. "A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-253, University of California at Berkeley.
- William N. Goetzmann & Matthew I. Spiegel, 1997. "A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm64, Yale School of Management.
- Buckley, Robert & Ermisch, John, 1982. "Government Policy and House Prices in the United Kingdom: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 44(4), pages 273-304, November.
- Carmelo Giaccotto & John Clapp, 1992. "Appraisal-Based Real Estate Returns under Alternative Market Regimes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24.
- DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
- Francke, M K & de Vos, A F, 2000. "Efficient Computation of Hierarchical Trends," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 51-57, January.
- Pain, Nigel & Westaway, Peter, 1997. "Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 587-610, October.
- John M. Clapp & Carmelo Giaccotto, 2002. "Evaluating House Price Forecasts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(1), pages 1-26.
- Park, Donghyun & Xiao, Qin, 2009. "Housing Prices and the Role of Speculation: The Case of Seoul," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 146, Asian Development Bank.
- Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2010.
"Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?,"
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,
Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 170-192, August.
- Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, . "Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-27, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Qin Xiao & Donghyun Park, 2010. "Seoul housing prices and the role of speculation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 619-644, June.
- Mahua Barari & Nityananda Sarkar & Srikanta Kundu & Kushal Banik Chowdhury, 2014. "Forecasting House Prices in the United States with Multiple Structural Breaks," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.