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Prices on the second-hand market for Swedish family houses: correlation, causation and determinants

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Author Info
Lennart Berg

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Abstract

The structural differences and the dynamics in prices on the second-hand market for family houses in large (Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö), medium-sized, small and industrial cities and sparsely populated areas are analysed in this paper. The basic house price data set used in the analysis consists of constant quality monthly price indices. The sample starts in January 1981 and ends in July 1997. The real price changes in house prices for all seven regions display a high degree of autocorrelation, and the correlograms reveal a mean reverting pattern. The Granger causality test indicates that the real price changes for the Stockholm area 'Granger cause' the price changes in the other areas. Thus, the real price change in the Stockholm area has a ripple effect on the six other areas. Both bivariate and multivariate Granger tests indicate information content in a number of macroeconomic variables versus the real price changes for the Stockholm area and the entire country. A simple VAR model was estimated with the price changes for family houses in the Stockholm area, a proxy for consumption growth and the change in the rate in the unemployment rate as endogenous variables and a number of exogenous macro variables. Experiments with impulse response functions show that a shock in the change in the rate of unemployment has a strong effect on real house prices and consumption.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal European Journal of Housing Policy.

Volume (Year): 2 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 1-24
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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjhp:v:2:y:2002:i:1:p:1-24

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Related research
Keywords: Granger Causality Ripple Effect Var Modelling

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Poterba, James M, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Muellbauer, J & Murphy, A, 1996. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economics Papers 125, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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  3. Bayoumi, Tamim, 1993. "Financial Deregulation and Household Saving," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(421), pages 1432-43, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Englund, P. & Hendershott, P.H. & Turner, B., 1995. "The Tax Reform and the Housing Market," Papers 20, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  6. Berg, Lennart, 1994. "Household Savings and Debts: The Experience of the Nordic Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 42-53, Summer.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Elias Oikarinen, 2005. "The Diffusion of Housing Price Movements from Centre to Surrounding Areas," Discussion Papers 979, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hallberg, Daniel & Johansson, Per, 2002. "Turnover and Price in the Housing Market: Causation, Association or Independence?," Working Paper Series 2002:12, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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