Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Beyond macro variables: consumer confidence index and household expenditure in Hungary

Contents:

Author Info

  • Gabor Vadas

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

One of the most important aspects of consumer surveys is the computation of the consumer confidence index, which aims to provide accurate figures on the financial position and outlook of households as well as their intention concerning future consumption and savings. . Although the motion of the consumer confidence index is of interest to both policymakers and economic forecasters, it is not obvious whether the sub-questions included in the surveys and the published composite index derived from such questions can measure exactly what survey makers are curious to know. In this study we examine the properties and forecasting capability of the Hungarian consumer confidence index published by GKI Economic Research Plc. We argue that some questions are unable to measure what they theoretically should. However, others are useful in forecasting the consumption expenditure of Hungarian households. Our results suggest that, in addition to macro variables, the consumer confidence index contains information over and above macro variables.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/mic/papers/0512/0512006.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Microeconomics with number 0512006.

as in new window
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 19 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0512006

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 18
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: consumer confidence index; consumption; forecast;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Gabor Vadas & Gergely Kiss, 2005. "The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission," Macroeconomics 0512010, EconWPA.
  2. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0512006

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.