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Real convergence in Central and Eastern European EU Member States: which role for exchange rate volatility?

Author

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  • Arratibel, Olga
  • Martin, Reiner
  • Furceri, Davide

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relation between exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real per capita output growth, the credit cycle, the stock of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU Member States. Using panel estimations for the period between 1995 and 2006, we find that lower exchange rate volatility is associated with higher growth (for relatively less financially developed economies), higher stocks of FDI (for relatively more open economies), higher current account deficits, and a more volatile development of the credit to GDP ratio. JEL Classification: F3, F4, F5

Suggested Citation

  • Arratibel, Olga & Martin, Reiner & Furceri, Davide, 2008. "Real convergence in Central and Eastern European EU Member States: which role for exchange rate volatility?," Working Paper Series 929, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008929
    Note: 337289
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Michal SKOREPA, 2013. "Troubles in the Euro Area Periphery: The View through the Lens of a Simple Convergence-Sensitive Optimum Currency Area Index," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(2), pages 129-151, May.
    3. Assoc. Prof. Anca Tãnasie Ph.D & Lect. Rãzvan Tudor Tãnasie PhD, 2011. "An Algorithm Based Approach For Romania’S Road Towards The Euro-Area Membership Status. In Search Of A Suitable Example," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(17), pages 133-140, November.
    4. Danica Unevska Andonova & Branimir Jovanovic, 2011. "Sustainability of the Macedonian Current Account," Working Papers 2011-06, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    5. Grossmann, Axel & Orlov, Alexei G., 2012. "Exchange rate misalignments in frequency domain," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 185-199.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Catching-up; Convergence.; credit; current account; EU; exchange rate volatility; FDI; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy

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