Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-country Savings Regressions
AbstractThis paper examines the extent to which the conclusions of cross-country studies of private savings are robust to allowing for the possible heterogeneity of savings behaviour across countries and for the inclusion of dynamics. It reviews the econometric implications of neglected slope heterogeneity and dynamics for the fixed effects estimators routinely used in such studies, and illustrates the nature and extent of the biases involved by a re-examination of time series data from 21 OECD countries. The paper shows that neglecting heterogeneity and dynamics in cross-country savings regressions can lead to misleading inferences about the key determinants of savings behaviour. The results indicate that among the many variables considered in the literature only the fiscal variables - the general government surplus as a proportion of GDP and the ratio of government consumption to GDP - seem to be the key determinants of private savings rates in the industrial countries in the post-World War II period
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 9904.
Date of creation: Jan 1999
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm
Savings behaviour; Cross-country studies. Slope heterogeneity; Dynamics; Panel data models;
Other versions of this item:
- International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-Country Savings Regressions," IMF Working Papers 99/128, International Monetary Fund.
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 1993.
"Saving and Growth: A Reinterpretation,"
NBER Working Papers
4470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carroll, Christopher D. & Weil, David N., 1994. "Saving and growth: a reinterpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 133-192, June.
- Masson, Paul R & Bayoumi, Tamim & Samiei, Hossein, 1998.
"International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 483-501, September.
- Paul R. Masson & Tamim Bayoumi & Hossein Samiei, 1995. "International Evidenceon the Determinants of Private Saving," IMF Working Papers 95/51, International Monetary Fund.
- Kajal Lahiri, 2005. "Analysis of Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 1093-1095.
- Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996.
"Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao & Ostry, Jonathan, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," MPRA Paper 6978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hsiao, Cheng & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Kamil Tahmiscioglu, A., 2002.
"Maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects dynamic panel data models covering short time periods,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 107-150, July.
- Hsaio, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tahmiscioglu, A. Kamil, 1998. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Fixed Effects Dynamic Panel Data Models Covering Short Time Periods," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9826, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M. H. & Tahmiscioglu, A. K., 1998. "Bayes Estimation of Short-run Coefficients in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9804, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Gilbert, Christopher L, 1986. "Professor Hendry's Econometric Methodology," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 283-307, August.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992.
"Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Webb, Steven B & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 1992.
"Household Saving in Developing Countries: First Cross-Country Evidence,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 529-47, September.
- Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Webb, Steven B. & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 1991. "Household saving in developing countries : first cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 575, The World Bank.
- Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
- Masao Ogaki & Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1995.
"Saving Behavior in Low and Middle-Income Developing Countries,"
IMF Working Papers
95/3, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao & Ostry, Jonathan, 1995. "Saving behavior in low- and middle-income developing countries," MPRA Paper 13757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Swamy, P A V B, 1970.
"Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model,"
Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-23, March.
- Tom Doan, . "SWAMY: RATS procedure to compute a GLS matrix weighted estimator for a panel data set," Statistical Software Components RTS00206, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
- Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1992. "On the Estimation of Panel-Data Models with Serial Correlation When Instruments Are Not Strictly Exogenous," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, January.
- Tim Callen & Christian Thimann, 1997. "Empirical Determinants of Household Saving," IMF Working Papers 97/181, International Monetary Fund.
- M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Christian Thimann & Anuradha Dayal-Gulati, 1997. "Saving in Southeast Asia and Latin America Compared," IMF Working Papers 97/110, International Monetary Fund.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Howard Cobb).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.