Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Private Savings In Transition Economies: Are There Terms Of Trade Shocks?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Abdur R. Chowdhury

    ()

Abstract

The paper examines the impact of terms of trade shocks on private savings in the transition economies after accounting for the effect of other determinants. Economic agents in the transition economies are subject to tight credit constraints which are more pronounced during bad state of nature. Thus, adverse shocks to commodity prices in the world market can force them to reduce savings by a larger amount than they would otherwise have. Empirical analysis using a dynamic panel model and data from twenty one transition economies confirm that most of the determinants of savings identified in the literature also apply to the transition economies. Favorable movements in both the permanent and transitory components of the terms of trade have a significant positive impact on private savings with transitory movements having a larger impact than the permanent component. This reflects the lack of access to foreign borrowing that many of the transition economies have faced during the last decade. Although the impact of terms of trade shocks are found to be asymmetric, the magnitude of the impact appears to be small. The results are robust for alternative estimators, determinants, and country groupings.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp572.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 2003-572.

as in new window
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 08 May 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2003-572

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 724 E. University Ave, Wyly Hall 1st Flr, Ann Arbor MI 48109
Phone: 734 763-5020
Fax: 734 763 5850
Email:
Web page: http://www.wdi.umich.edu
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: transition; private savings; terms of trade;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Bowsher, Clive G., 2002. "On testing overidentifying restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 211-220, October.
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  3. Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989. "On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices," Papers, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs 145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  4. World Bank, 2000. "Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14776, August.
  5. Ashok K. Lahiri, 1989. "Dynamics of Asian Savings: The Role of Growth and Age Structure," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 228-261, March.
  6. Stephen Zeldes, . "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research 24-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  7. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Norman Loayza, 1999. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 51, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-70, May.
  9. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  10. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  11. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1981. "Real Interest Rates, Home Goods, and Optimal External Borrowing," NBER Working Papers 0779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Mechthild Schrooten & Sabine Stephan, 2002. "Back on Track?: Savings Puzzles in EU-Accession Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 306, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  13. Nauro F. Campos & Yuko Kinoshita, 2002. "Foreign Direct Investment as Technology Transferred: Some Panel Evidence from the Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan 438, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  14. Hali J. Edison & Ross Levine & Luca Ricci & Torsten Slok, 2002. "International Financial Integration and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Denizer, Cevdet & Wolf, Holger C., 2000. "The savings collapse during the transition in Eastern Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2419, The World Bank.
  16. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
  17. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  18. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2000. "Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2381, The World Bank.
  19. Christian Thimann & Anuradha Dayal-Gulati, 1997. "Saving in Southeast Asia and Latin America Compared," IMF Working Papers 97/110, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Campos, Nauro F & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What we Know, What we Don't and What we Should," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Stanley Fischer, 1993. "The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth," NBER Working Papers 4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
  23. Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao & Ostry, Jonathan, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," MPRA Paper 6978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  25. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Terms-Of-Trade Shocks," IMF Working Papers 99/134, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1994. "Saving, Growth, and Liquidity Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 83-109, February.
  27. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  28. Roxana Radulescu & David Barlow, 2002. "The relationship between policies and growth in transition countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(3), pages 719-745, November.
  29. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
  30. Masson, Paul R & Bayoumi, Tamim & Samiei, Hossein, 1998. "International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 483-501, September.
  31. Oleksiy Ivaschenko, 2002. "Growth and Inequality: Evidence from Transitional Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 746, CESifo Group Munich.
  32. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
  33. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2000. "What Can Account for Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series, Boston University - Department of Economics dp-112, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  34. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  35. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Lederman, Daniel & Loayza, Norman, 2002. "What causes violent crime?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1323-1357, July.
  36. Cashin, P. & McDermott, C.J., 1999. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne 678, The University of Melbourne.
  37. Paul Cashin & C. McDermott, 2002. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 219-235, July.
  38. Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," MPRA Paper 8173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. L. Zanforlin & César Calderón & Alberto Chong, 2001. "Are African Current Account Deficits Different? Stylized Facts, Transitory Shocks, and Decomposition Analysis," IMF Working Papers 01/4, International Monetary Fund.
  40. Peter Wickham & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 94/7, International Monetary Fund.
  41. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  42. Peter Montiel & Eduardo Borensztein, 1991. "Savings, Investment, and Growth in Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 91/61, International Monetary Fund.
  43. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks," MPRA Paper 13716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Loayza, N. & Schmidt, K. & Serven, L., 1999. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," Papers, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals 47, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  45. Denizer, Cevdet & Wolf, Holger & Ying, Yvonne, 2002. "Household Savings in the Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 463-475, September.
  46. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1995. "Saving Behavior in Low and Middle-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 95/3, International Monetary Fund.
  47. Bevan, David & Collier, Paul & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1993. "Trade shocks in developing countries: Consequences and policy responses," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 557-565, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Tomasz Jasiński & Paweł Mielcarz, 2013. "Consumption as a Factor of Polish Economic Growth During the Global Recession of 2008/2009: A Comparison with Spain and Hungary," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 7(2), June.
  2. Roman Mogilevsky & Anara Omorova, 2011. "Assessing Development Strategies to Achieve the MDGs in Asia. Macroeconomic Strategies of MDG Achievement in the Kyrgyz Republic," CASE Network Reports 0095, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  3. Timo Baas, 2006. "Die Disparität der Sparquoten Ost- und Westdeutschlands: kann der spezifische ostdeutsche Transformationsprozess die Abweichung erklären?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(4), pages 121-134.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2003-572. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laurie Gendron).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.