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Modelling Household's Savings and Dwellings Investment - a Portfolio Choice Approach

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Author Info
Gábor Vadas () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

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Abstract

One important characteristic of dwellings is that housing can be regarded as an investment or asset. Our paper focuses on this function of dwellings and develops a stochastic portfolio choice model for the housing market, which is easy to incorporate into medium and large-scale macro models. Theoretical results suggest that house prices move in line with households’ income, although house prices have a higher variance than income does. Another important implication of the model is that the portfolio share of housing investment depends on the excess return, defined as the difference between return on housing and financial investment and the variance of excess return describing the riskiness of an asset. Our intention is to test these theoretical implications of the model on several countries, however we only test on UK data, due to the data availability. In this case, empirical results strengthen the model framework.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2003/6.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2003/6

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Web page: http://www.mnb.hu/
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Related research
Keywords: households' behaviour housing investment saving portfolio decision house price.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Stephen Malpezzi, 1998. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Zoltán M. Jakab & András Mihály Kovács, 2002. "Hungary in the NIGEM model," MNB Working Papers 2002/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  4. Poterba, James M, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Muellbauer, J & Murphy, A, 1996. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economics Papers 125, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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  6. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & John M. Quigley, 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Luc Arrondel & Bruno Lefebvre, 2001. "Households' Portfolio Behavior in France : the Role of Housing," DELTA Working Papers 2001-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  8. Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pain, Nigel & Westaway, Peter, 1997. "Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 587-610, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ming-Chi Chen & Kanak Patel, 1998. "House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality: An Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling Market," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 1(1), pages 101-126. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Christopher J. Mayer & C. Tsuriel Somerville, 1996. "Unifying empirical and theoretical models of housing supply," Working Papers 96-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
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  14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gabor Vadas & Gergely Kiss, 2005. "The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission," Macroeconomics 0512010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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