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A magyarországi monetáris transzmissziós mechanizmus fő jellemzői
[The main features of Hungarys monetary transmission mechanism]


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  • Vonnák, Balázs


Tanulmányunkban megkíséreljük összefoglalni a magyarországi monetáris transzmissziós mechanizmusra vonatkozó legfrissebb empirikus eredményeket. Egy, az MNB-ben nemrég befejezett kutatási program keretein belül kilenc dolgozat látott napvilágot. A tanulmányok azokat a csatornákat vizsgálják, amelyeken keresztül a magyar monetáris politika hatást gyakorol a gazdaságra. Mishkin [1996] klasszifikációja alapján keretrendszert alkottunk az egyes eredmények összegzésére. Arra a következtetésre jutottunk, hogy az utóbbi tíz évben a monetáris politika - elsősorban az árfolyamon keresztül - kimutatható hatással volt a reálgazdaságra és az árakra. Az árfolyamcsatorna dominanciája magyarázatot ad arra, hogy az árak miért reagálnak gyorsabban, a kibocsátás pedig mérsékeltebben az olyan zárt, fejlett gazdaságokhoz képest, mint az Egyesült Államok vagy az euróövezet. Az euró hazai bevezetését követően az árfolyamcsatorna hiányát várhatóan ellensúlyozza az a tény, hogy a kamatcsatorna a külső keresleten keresztül is működik, ezért az euróövezeten belül nem számítunk a magyar gazdaság aszimmetrikus viselkedésére. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E44, E52, E58.

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Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

Volume (Year): LIII (2006)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Pages: 1155-1177

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Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:888

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Postal: Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) Budapest, Budaörsi út 45., 1112, Hungary

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  1. Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 91/62, International Monetary Fund.
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
  5. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  6. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 1999-28, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  8. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  9. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Julian Morgan & Jean-Pierre Villetelle, 2001. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: what do aggregate and national structural models tell us?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area 433, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  10. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "Effects of monetary policy shocks on the trade balance in small open European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 197-203, May.
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Cited by:
  1. László György & József Veress, 2013. "The Possible Causes of and Means of Avoiding External Financial Vulnerability Hungary versus Singapore," Public Finance Quarterly, State Audit Office of Hungary, State Audit Office of Hungary, vol. 58(1), pages 53-75.


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