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The effects of global monetary policy and Greek debt crisis on the dynamic conditional correlations of currency markets

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Abstract

This study examines first the effects of financial market turmoil in the fall of 2008 on the conditional correlations between three exchange rate returns (USD/EUR, JPY/USD, USD/GBP), and then the effects of quantitative easing programs and Greek debt crisis on the entire distribution of estimated correlations. The dynamic correlations have sharply increased during the period that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers, indicating a financial contagion across currency markets. The quantitative easing programs of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have affected the conditional correlations between the currency pairs. Finally, the Greek debt crisis has emerged as the most significant covariate of the quantile regressions..

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  • Costas Karfakis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2014. "The effects of global monetary policy and Greek debt crisis on the dynamic conditional correlations of currency markets," Discussion Paper Series 2014_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2014_01
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency markets; quantitative easing; GARCH; dynamic conditional correlation; quantile regression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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