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Statements of ECB Officials and their Effect on the Level and Volatility of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate

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  • David-Jan Jansen
  • Jakob de Haan

Abstract

This paper studies the reaction of the mean and volatility of the euro-dollar exchange rate to statements of ECB officials during the first years of EMU. We focus on statements on monetary policy and the (potential) strength of the euro. We find that the Bundesbank has dominated the news coverage. We conclude that ECB statements have mainly influenced volatility. In some cases there are effects of statements on the level of the euro-dollar rate. Efforts to ‘talk up’ the euro have not been successful. There is also evidence of asymmetric reactions to news.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2003/wp-cesifo-2003-04/cesifo_wp927.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 927.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_927

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Keywords: ECB; euro; foreign exchange; news approach;

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  1. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
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Cited by:
  1. José De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman & Rodrigo Valdés, 2005. "Tipo de cambio flexible y fijación de metas inflacionarias en Chile: experiencia y aspectos resaltantes," Research Department Publications, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department 4428, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Ullrich, Katrin, 2008. "Inflation expectations of experts and ECB communication," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 93-108, March.
  3. Balazs Egert, 2009. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp955, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Jeffery D. Amato & Andrew Filardo & Gabriele Galati & Goetz von Peter & Feng Zhu, 2005. "Research on exchange rates and monetary policy: an overview," BIS Working Papers 178, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Prast, Henriette M. & de Vor, Marc P. H., 2005. "Investor reactions to news: a cognitive dissonance analysis of the euro-dollar exchange rate," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-141, March.
  6. José De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman & Rodrigo Valdés, 2005. "Flexible Exchange Rate with Inflation Targeting in Chile: Experience and Issues," Research Department Publications, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department 4427, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  7. Ellis Connolly & Marion Kohler, 2004. "News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.), The Future of Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
  8. José De Gregorio R. / & Andrea Tokman R., 2005. "Fear of Floating and Exchange Rate Policy in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 8(3), pages 29-54, December.
  9. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 2010. "How Central Bankers See It: The First Decade of European Central Bank Policy and Beyond," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 327-374 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. José De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman R, 2005. "Flexible exchange rate regime and forex intervention," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 127-38 Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 2008. "How Central Bankers See It: The First Decade of ECB Policy and Beyond," NBER Working Papers 14489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2004. "Look Who's Talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU," DNB Working Papers, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department 007, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  13. Marie Musard-Gies, 2005. "Do ECB's statements steer short-term and long-term interest rates in the euro zone?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005, Money Macro and Finance Research Group 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  14. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2008. "The euro and pound volatility dynamics: An investigation from conditional jump process," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 193-207, June.

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