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On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Chinn, Menzie D
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Five East Asian currencies--the Indonesian rupiah, Korean won, Singapore dollar, Taiwanese dollar and the Thai baht--are modeled in the framework of a monetary specification augmented by the relative price of non-tradables. This relative price variable proxies for the Balassa-Samuelson effect in East Asian real exchange rates identified in previous studies. All of the currencies fit the long run implications of various types of monetary models, according to Johansen multivariate co-integration tests. Exchange rates do the bulk of adjustment toward equilibrium, except in the cases of the Thai baht and the New Taiwan dollar. For these currencies, interest rates and money supplies move to restore equilibrium. In ex post simulations, the out-of-sample fit of the estimated models is relatively good for the won, Singapore and New Taiwan dollars, and for the baht, although in no case is the exact magnitude and timing of the currency crashes predicted. The estimated model completely fails to track the rupiah out-of-sample. Copyright @ 1999 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics .
Volume (Year): 4 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 113-27
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:4:y:1999:i:2:p:113-27Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/
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Keywords: Other versions of this item:
Paper Menzie D. Chinn, 1998.
"On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies ,"
NBER Working Papers
6671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Chinn, M.D., 1997.
"ON the Won: And Other East Asian Currencies ,"
Papers
97-07, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
Menzie David Chinn, 1997.
"On the won and other East Asian currencies ,"
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series
97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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[Downloadable!] Menzie David Chinn, 1997.
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97-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!] Chinn, M.D., 1997.
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Chinn, Menzie D, 2000.
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Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1996.
"Relative Labour Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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