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On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies

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  • Chinn, Menzie D

Abstract

Five East Asian currencies--the Indonesian rupiah, Korean won, Singapore dollar, Taiwanese dollar and the Thai baht--are modeled in the framework of a monetary specification augmented by the relative price of non-tradables. This relative price variable proxies for the Balassa-Samuelson effect in East Asian real exchange rates identified in previous studies. All of the currencies fit the long run implications of various types of monetary models, according to Johansen multivariate co-integration tests. Exchange rates do the bulk of adjustment toward equilibrium, except in the cases of the Thai baht and the New Taiwan dollar. For these currencies, interest rates and money supplies move to restore equilibrium. In ex post simulations, the out-of-sample fit of the estimated models is relatively good for the won, Singapore and New Taiwan dollars, and for the baht, although in no case is the exact magnitude and timing of the currency crashes predicted. The estimated model completely fails to track the rupiah out-of-sample. Copyright @ 1999 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 4 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 113-27

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:4:y:1999:i:2:p:113-27

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  1. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  2. Wolff, Christian C P, 1987. "Time-Varying Parameters and the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Structural Exchange Rate Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 87-97, January.
  3. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Chinn, M.D., 1997. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Papers 97-06, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
  7. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  8. Menzie D. Chinn & William F. Maloney, 1996. "Financial and Capital Account Liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan during the 1980's," NBER Working Papers 5814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robert Dekle & Mahmood Pradhan, 1997. "Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in Asean Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/36, International Monetary Fund.
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  16. Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Ronald Macdonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 437-489, September.
  18. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
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  20. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
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  24. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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  27. Chinn, Menzie David, 1997. "Paper pushers or paper money? Empirical assessment of fiscal and monetary models of exchange rate determination," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-78, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Balazs Egert, 2009. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp955, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Renu Kohli & Kenneth Kletzer, 2004. "Exchange RAte Dynamics with Financial Repression: A Test of Exchange Rate Models for India," International Finance 0405013, EconWPA.
  3. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "Regional Vulnerability : The Case of East Asia," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 776, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  4. Karl Whelan, 2013. "Sovereign default and the euro," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 478-501, AUTUMN.
  5. Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?," NBER Working Papers 6491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Chinn, Menzie David & Dooley, Michael P., 1999. "International monetary arrangements in the Asia-Pacific before and after," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 361-384.
  7. Cartapanis, Andre & Dropsy, Vincent & Mametz, Sophie, 2002. "The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 79-91, February.
  8. Balázs Égert, 2013. "Dutch Disease in the Post-Soviet Countries of Central and South-West Asia: How Contagious is it?," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-10, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  9. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries : How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 768, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 2011. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Countries: Eleven Empirical Regularities from Latin America and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 17074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Andre Varella Mollick & Margot Quijano, 2004. "The Mexican Peso And The Korean Won Real Exchange Rates: Evidence From Productivity Models," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 189-208, June.
  13. Sebastian Edwards, 2011. "Exchange-Rate Policies in Emerging Countries: Eleven Empirical Regularities From Latin America and East Asia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 533-563, September.

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