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The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates

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Author Info
Menzie David Chinn

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Abstract

The evidence for a productivity-based explanation for real exchange rate behavior of East Asian currencies is examined. Using sectoral output and employment data, relative prices and relative productivities are calculated for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. Time series regressions of the real exchange rate on relative prices indicate a role for relative prices for Indonesia, Japan and Korea. When examining real exchange rates and relative productivity ratios, one finds a relationship for Japan, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Only when augmenting the regressions with real oil prices are significant relationships obtained for Indonesia and Korea. Panel regression results are slightly more supportive of a relative price view of real exchange rates. However, the panel regressions incorporating productivity variables, as well as other demand side factors, are less encouraging, except for a small subset of countries (Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines). Surprisingly, government spending does not appear to be a determinant of real exchange rates in the region.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6108.

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Date of creation: Jul 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6108

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Strauss, Jack, 1996. "The cointegrating relationship between productivity, real exchange rates and purchasing power parity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 299-313. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kakkar, Vikas & Ogaki, Masao, 1999. "Real exchange rates and nontradables: A relative price approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-215, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Systematic movements in real exchange rates in the G-5 : Evidence on the integration of internal and external markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 1023-1044, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Charles Engel, 1995. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 5394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Hsiu-Ling Wu, 1996. "Testing for the Fundamental Determinants of the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Taiwan," NBER Working Papers 5787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1997. "Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia," NBER Working Papers 5979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 209-224, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Charles Engel, 1996. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," NBER Working Papers 5646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Phylaktis, Kate & Kassimatis, Yiannis, 1994. "Does the real exchange rate follow a random walk? The Pacific Basin perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 476-495, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Urban, Dieter M., 2007. "Terms of Trade, Catch-up, and Home Market Effect: The Example of Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Funke, Michael & Rahn, Jörg, 2004. "Just how undervalued is the Chinese renminbi?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Stacie Beck & Cagay Coskuner, 2003. "Tax Effects on the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 03-11, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hong-Ghi Min, 2002. "Inequality, the price of nontradables, and the real exchange rate : theory and cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2758, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ken Miyajima, 2005. "Real Exchange Rates in Growing Economies: How Strong Is the Role of the Nontradables Sector?," IMF Working Papers 05/233, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2008. "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies," NBER Working Papers 14168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael Funke & Jorg Rahn, 2004. "By How Much Is The Chinese Renminbi Undervalued?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 40, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  8. Yin-wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," Working Papers 112007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Pablo Astorga, 2007. "Real Exchange Rates in Latin America: what does the 20th Century reveal?," Working Papers in Economic History wp07-03, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones. [Downloadable!]
  10. Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Ping Hua, 2002. "L'effet Balassa-Samuelson et les différences d'inflation entre les provinces chinoises," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 16(3), pages 33-60. [Downloadable!]
  11. Pham Van Ha & Tom Kompas, 2008. "Productivity and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Supporting the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis through an ‘Errors in Variables’ Analysis," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec08-03, International and Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Yin-wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2006. "The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration," Working Papers 182006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  13. García Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2009. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Developed Countries and Emerging Market Economies: Different Outcomes Explained," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(2), pages 1-24. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?," NBER Working Papers 6491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "On the won and other East Asian currencies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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