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Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries

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  • Annika Alexius
  • Jonny Nilsson

Abstract

In an extended Balassa–Samuelson model, long-run real exchange rates are determined by relative productivity and terms of trade. We present evidence of systematic long-run relationships between these fundamental variables and real exchange rates in a data set covering 15 OECD countries from 1960 to 1996. High relative productivity is associated with real exchange rate appreciations in most cases. There is less support for the hypothesis that the terms of trade affect equilibrium real exchange rates. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1008378610758
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 11 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 383-397

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:11:y:2000:i:4:p:383-397

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

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Keywords: real exchange rates; Balassa–Samuelson model;

References

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  1. Oh, Keun-Yeob, 1996. "Purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 405-418, June.
  2. Ronald Mac Donald, 1998. "What Do We Really Know About Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 28, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  3. Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 1-29, November.
  4. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini & Jose De Gregorio, 1994. "International Evidenceon Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/33, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Charles Engel, 1995. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 5394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
  8. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  9. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard, 1981. "Estimating regression models of finite but unknown order," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 162-162, May.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  12. Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fischer, Christoph, 2002. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Bergvall, Anders, 2002. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Nordic Countries," Working Paper Series 2002:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  3. Larsson, Anna, 2002. "The Swedish Real Exchange Rate under Different Currency Regimes," Working Paper Series 180, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research, revised 18 Sep 2003.
  4. Lindblad, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2006. "A Simultaneous Model of the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro," Working Paper Series 193, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  5. Yihui Lan, 2003. "The Long-Term Behaviour of Exchange Rates, Part II: Aspects of Exchange-Rate Economics," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  6. Alexius, Annika, 2000. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper Series 117, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  7. Sellin, Peter, 2007. "Using a New Open Economy Macroeconomics model to make real nominal exchange rate forecasts," Working Paper Series 213, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  8. Masao Ogaki & Sungwook Park, 2007. "Long-run real exchange rate changes and the properties of the variance of k-differences," Working Papers 07-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  9. Celine Gauthier & David Tessier, 2002. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence," Working Papers 02-31, Bank of Canada.
  10. Jaanus Raim, 2004. "The Alternative to the Existing System of the Concepts about Purchasing Power Parity Deviations . Derived from the Estonian Experience," Working Papers 115, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology.
  11. Pham Van Ha & Tom Kompas, 2008. "Productivity and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Supporting the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis through an ‘Errors in Variables’ Analysis," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec08-03, International and Development Economics.
  12. Fat Codruta Maria & Dezsi Eva, 2011. "Exchange-Rates Forecasting: Exponential Smoothing Techniques And Arima Models," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 499-508, July.

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