The usual suspects? Productivity and demand shocks and Asia-Pacific real exchange rates

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The usual suspects? Productivity and demand shocks and Asia-Pacific real exchange rates

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Menzie David Chinn () (University of California, Santa Cruz)

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Menzie Chinn

Abstract

The evidence for a productivity-based explanation for real exchange rate behavior of East Asian currencies is examined. Using sectoral output and employment data, relative prices and relative productivity levels are calculated for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. Time series regressions of the real exchange rate on relative prices indicate a role for relative prices for Indonesia, Japan and Korea. When examining real exchange rates and relative productivity ratios, one finds a relationship for Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines. Only when augmenting the regressions with real oil prices significant relationships are obtained for Indonesia and Korea. Relative per capita income, a proxy for preferences towards services, does not appear to be an important determinant in this sample. Panel regression results are slightly more supportive of a relative price view of real exchange rates. However, the panel regressions incorporating productivity variables, as well as other demand side factors, provide less encouraging results, except for a subset of countries (Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines). Surprisingly, neither government spending nor the terms of trade appear to be a determinant of regional real exchange rates.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 31.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 20 Jul 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:31

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Article
- Chinn, Menzie D, 2000. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 20-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Paper
- Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "The usual suspects? productivity and demand shocks and Asia-Pacific real exchange rates," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
- Chinn, M.D., 1997. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Papers 97-06, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
- Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Other versions:
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Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1997. "Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia," NBER Working Papers 5979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Other versions:
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Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Menzie David Chinn & Louis Dorrance Johnston, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/66, International Monetary Fund.
Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Systematic movements in real exchange rates in the G-5 : Evidence on the integration of internal and external markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 1023-1044, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1996. "Relative Labour Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Charles Engel, 1995. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 5394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Working Papers 96-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
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Charles Engel, 1996. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," NBER Working Papers 5646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Engel, C., 1996. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-05, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Charles Engel, 1998. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Working Papers 0050, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Charles Engel, 1998. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0050, Department of Economics at the University of Washington. [Downloadable!]
- Engel, C., 1996. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Working Papers 96-05, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
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Phylaktis, Kate & Kassimatis, Yiannis, 1994. "Does the real exchange rate follow a random walk? The Pacific Basin perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 476-495, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Stacie Beck & Cagay Coskuner, 2003. "Tax Effects on the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 03-11, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Pham Van Ha and Tom Kompas, 2008. "Productivity and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Supporting the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis through an ‘Errors in Variables’ Analysis," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec08-03, International and Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
Hong-Ghi Min, 2002. "Inequality, the price of nontradables, and the real exchange rate : theory and cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2758, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
Ken Miyajima, 2005. "Real Exchange Rates in Growing Economies: How Strong Is the Role of the Nontradables Sector?," IMF Working Papers 05/233, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2008. "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies," NBER Working Papers 14168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Michael Funke & Jorg Rahn, 2004. "By How Much Is The Chinese Renminbi Undervalued?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 40, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
Yin-wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2006. "The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration," Working Papers 182006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
Urban, Dieter M., 2007. "Terms of Trade, Catch-up, and Home Market Effect: The Example of Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Urban, Dieter M., 2007. "Terms of trade, catch-up, and home-market effect: The example of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 470-488, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Yin-wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," Working Papers 112007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," NBER Working Papers 12850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2007. "The overvaluation of Renminbi undervaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 762-785, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?," NBER Working Papers 6491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pablo Astorga, 2007. "Real Exchange Rates in Latin America: what does the 20th Century reveal?," Working Papers in Economic History wp07-03, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones. [Downloadable!]
Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "On the won and other East Asian currencies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies," NBER Working Papers 6671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Chinn, M.D., 1997. "ON the Won: And Other East Asian Currencies," Papers 97-07, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
- Chinn, Menzie D, 1999. "On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 113-27, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Funke, Michael & Rahn, Jörg, 2004. "Just how undervalued is the Chinese renminbi?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005. "Just how Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20504, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005. "Just How Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi?," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 465-489, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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