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Testing for the Fundamental Determinants of the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Taiwan

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  • Hsiu-Ling Wu
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    Abstract

    Three things have been suggested in this paper regarding the real exchange rate movements of the Taiwanese dollar with respect to the US dollar. First, the real exchange rates between the Taiwanese and the US dollar did not move as PPP predicts by cointegration test and impulse response function analysis. Also, through the analyses of impulse response functions, innovation in nominal exchange rate, domestic and foreign prices results in permanent changes in the real exchange rate. Finally, in the long-run, differential productivity growth between the traded and non-traded goods and the changes in relative unit labor cost can lead to the changes in the real exchange rates.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5787.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5787.

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    Date of creation: Oct 1996
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    Publication status: published as Hsiu-Ling Wu. "Testing for the Fundamental Determinants of the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Taiwan," in Takatoshi Ito and Anne O. Krueger, editors, "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues (NBER-EASE volume 7)" University of Chicago Press (1999)
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5787

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    1. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
    5. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
    6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
    7. Pippenger, Michael K., 1993. "Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity: the case of Swiss exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 46-61, February.
    8. Hakkio, Craig, 1986. "Does the exchange rate follow a random walk? A Monte Carlo study of four tests for a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 221-229, June.
    9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. José García Solanes & Fernando Torrejón Flores, . "Testing the BalassA-Samuelson hypothesis in two different groups of countries: OECD and Latin America," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-02, FEDEA.
    2. Mariam Camarero, . "The real exchange rate of the dollar for a panel of OECD countries: Balassa-Samuelson or distribution sector effect?," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 06-04, FEDEA.
    3. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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